黑色金属日报-20250929

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★★☆, suggesting a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★, representing a clearer upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★★★, showing a more distinct upward trend and a proper investment chance [1] - Coking Coal: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and an appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish tendency but with poor operability on the market [1] - Silicon Iron: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish drive but limited operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is under short - term pressure due to weak demand expectations, lack of substantial production - limiting policies, and weak domestic demand, while steel exports remain high. The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The coke and coking coal markets have relatively strong support at previous lows but face pressure due to concerns about post - festival industrial chain feedback. The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets have upward price - driving forces and are recommended to go long on dips [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline today. The apparent demand for thread steel rebounded month - on - month, production stabilized, and inventory continued to decline. For hot - rolled coils, both demand and production declined slightly, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly. Although the pig iron output increased and the negative feedback pressure in the industrial chain eased, poor profit per ton restricted further production resumption. Domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain high. The market is under short - term pressure, and attention should be paid to the improvement of building material demand in the peak season [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened today, and the basis has been fluctuating at a low level recently. On the supply side, global iron ore shipments increased month - on - month and were stronger than the same period last year. The shipments from Australia and those to China increased significantly, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries remained high, while those from Brazil weakened slightly. The domestic arrival volume declined from a high level, and the port inventory increased last week. On the demand side, the profitability of steel mills declined, but the short - term resilience of pig iron production still supported iron ore demand. The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - The coke price fluctuated downward today. The first round of price hikes by coking plants is about to be fully implemented. Coke inventory continued to increase, and traders' purchasing willingness increased due to pre - holiday restocking demand. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level pig iron production provides support. However, the market is worried about post - festival industrial chain feedback, and the price is under pressure [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated downward today. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the pre - holiday restocking sentiment has basically ended. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly month - on - month, and the production - end inventory decreased slightly. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level pig iron production provides support. The market is worried about post - festival industrial chain feedback, and the price is under pressure [6] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price recovered after hitting a low today. The "Three - Carbon" policy has created new upward - driving forces. The pig iron output continued to rise, the weekly production of silicon manganese increased, and inventory did not accumulate. Manganese ore prices increased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate was slow. It is recommended to go long on dips [7] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price recovered after hitting a low today. The "Three - Carbon" policy has created upward - driving forces. The pig iron output continued to rise, and export demand remained at about 30,000 tons. The secondary demand declined slightly, and overall demand is acceptable. Supply has recovered to a high level, and inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to go long on dips [8]