天富期货国庆长假前农产品策略

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View - As the National Day holiday approaches in 2025, the domestic futures market will be closed for eight days while the international futures market remains open with significant price fluctuations, which will greatly impact the post - holiday trends of domestic futures. For the agricultural products sector closely linked to international markets, traders should carefully weigh risks and opportunities when holding positions during the holiday. The general principle is to clear positions, and if holding positions, it is advisable to hold profitable positions with light volume and set clear stop - loss strategies [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. General Strategy for Agricultural Products - Due to the long - term closure of the domestic futures market during the National Day holiday and the continuous trading of the international market, there are uncertainties in the post - holiday market. Traders should mainly clear positions, and if holding positions, they should hold profitable positions with light volume and set stop - loss strategies [1]. 3.2. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Fundamentals: The soybean meal market is affected by multiple factors. The repeated export tariffs in Argentina have led to a significant decline in soybean meal futures prices, and the domestic supply - demand situation is loose. The rapeseed meal market is relatively rigid, and its price is affected by soybean meal. The improvement of Sino - US economic and trade relations will increase the pressure on soybean meal [2]. - Strategy: Hold light short positions in soybean meal during the holiday with stop - loss set, and conservative investors should close positions [2]. 3.3. Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - Fundamentals: The fundamentals of different oil varieties vary. Soybean oil supply is abundant, rapeseed oil is relatively strong due to expected supply shortages, and domestic palm oil is affected by the Malaysian market with reduced inventory pressure [3]. - Strategy: Hold light long positions in palm oil and rapeseed oil during the holiday, and close soybean oil positions [4]. 3.4. Corn - Fundamentals: The new corn harvest is expected to be realized, and the concentrated listing of new grains will bring supply pressure, with more bearish factors in the future [4]. - Strategy: Hold light short positions in corn futures during the holiday and avoid heavy positions [5]. 3.5. Cotton - Fundamentals: The new cotton has a good harvest, but downstream demand is lower than expected, and the consumption recovery is slow [6]. - Strategy: Hold light short positions in cotton futures during the holiday and avoid heavy positions [7]. 3.6. Sugar - Fundamentals: The domestic sugar supply pressure remains, but the rebound of the foreign market limits the decline of domestic sugar prices [8]. - Strategy: Hold light short positions in sugar futures during the holiday and avoid heavy positions [9]. 3.7. Live Pigs - Fundamentals: The high inventory of live pigs and the weakening of demand after the double - festival stocking period have led to concentrated supply pressure [9]. - Strategy: Hold light short positions in live pig futures during the holiday and avoid heavy positions [10]. 3.8. Eggs - Fundamentals: The high inventory of laying hens and the large inventory of cold - storage eggs have led to large supply pressure, and the demand is weakening [10]. - Strategy: Hold light short positions in egg futures during the holiday and avoid heavy positions [11].