国投期货软商品日报-20250929

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Timber: ★☆★ (The meaning is not clearly defined in the given content) [1] - 20 - rubber: Not clearly interpretable from the symbol "ななな" [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and analyses for various soft commodities including cotton, pulp, sugar, apple, timber, 20 - rubber, natural rubber, and butadiene rubber. It assesses the supply, demand, and inventory situations of each commodity and gives corresponding investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, maintaining a bullish or bearish stance [1][2][3][4][6][7][8] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline, with weak spot trading and strong pre - sales of new cotton. Due to low old - crop inventory, new cotton sales may be good at the beginning of the new harvest. The purchase price of seed cotton followed the futures price down. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, but the specific output estimate ranges from 720 to 770 million tons. Ginners are cautious about new cotton purchase, and there is unlikely to be a scramble for purchase. The domestic production - demand gap may narrow significantly due to the bumper harvest. Weak peak - season demand and poor spinning profits drag down cotton prices. Although Sino - US trade negotiations sent positive signals, details need further tracking. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production progress in the central - southern region accelerated in the second half of August, with increased cane crushing and high sugar - making ratio, leading to a significant year - on - year increase in sugar production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. The sales rhythm this year is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market's focus has shifted to the next season's output estimate. After July, rainfall in Guangxi was good, and the vegetation index of sugarcane increased year - on - year, indicating a relatively good output expectation for the 25/26 season. Attention should be paid to subsequent weather and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - The futures price was strong. For the new - season apples, the coloring of early - picked Fuji was slow, and the quality of ordered goods was average. Late - maturing Fuji began to remove bags, and the fruit size was smaller this year. Due to the good price of early - maturing apples, farmers are bullish, and the opening price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high. However, the output in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side. In Shaanxi, farmers' bullish sentiment led to an increase in fruit retention, and the cold - storage inventory after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October may be higher than expected, so a bearish strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU (natural rubber futures) continued to decline slightly, NR (20 - rubber futures) first declined and then rose, and BR (butadiene rubber futures) continued to fall. The domestic prices of natural and synthetic rubber were stable with a downward trend, the port price of butadiene in the overseas market was stable, and the raw material prices in Thailand generally declined. The global natural rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and there is more rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants dropped significantly last week, with some plants under maintenance and some restarting. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires increased slightly, and that of semi - steel tires decreased slightly. Tire enterprises maintained normal production, and the inventory of finished tires continued to increase. They will arrange holidays during the National Day. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 461,200 tons last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 12,200 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene increased to 27,800 tons. With the approaching National Day holiday, demand is expected to decline, supply pressure is high, inventory reduction is difficult, and the external environment is poor. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [6] Pulp - Zhengzhou pulp futures dropped significantly, reaching a new low. The spot price of coniferous pulp was 5,300 yuan/ton for Moon brand and 5,250 yuan/ton for Russian coniferous pulp in the Yangtze River Delta region, and the price of broad - leaf pulp was 4,250 yuan/ton for Goldfish brand and remained stable. As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.033 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% month - on - month decline. The digestion of warehouse receipts was slow, and the warehouse receipts of broad - leaf pulp still suppressed the near - month contracts. China's pulp imports in August 2025 were 2.653 million tons, a decrease of 227,000 tons from the previous month. The current port inventory is high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively abundant, demand is average, and downstream paper mills continue to implement cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement strategies. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The port spot price increased by 10 yuan. The arrival volume increased last week. The quotation of New Zealand radiata pine in October increased, but the domestic spot price remained weak, reducing traders' import willingness. The overseas quotation is still high, and the domestic spot price is difficult to improve, increasing traders' pressure. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain low. The port inventory decreased significantly last week, indicating strong peak - season demand and smooth inventory reduction. The total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Considering the improved supply - demand situation and relatively low spot price, a bullish strategy is maintained [8]