软商品日报-20250929

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish bias, indicating a tendency for the price to rise, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ (White stars represent a short - term equilibrium in the long/short trend, with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish bias, indicating a tendency for the price to rise, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Timber: ★☆★ (The report does not clearly define this rating) [1] - 20 - rubber: The symbol is not clearly defined in the report [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish bias, indicating a tendency for the price to rise, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (Same as above) [1] Core Views Overall - Different soft commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions according to their respective fundamentals, including supply, demand, and weather conditions [2][3][4] By Commodity - Cotton: Short - term Zhengzhou cotton shows a weak trend. Temporarily wait and see due to factors such as weak domestic demand, cautious new - cotton acquisition, and undetermined details of Sino - US trade negotiations [2] - Sugar: The market's focus has shifted to the next season's output forecast. The sugar production in Brazil has increased, and the output in Guangxi, China, is expected to be good in the 25/26 season. Monitor subsequent weather and growth [3] - Apple: Although the spot market performs well, the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected, and the price faces upward pressure. Adopt a bearish trading strategy [4] - 20 - rubber, Natural rubber, and Synthetic rubber: With the approaching National Day holiday, demand is expected to decline, supply pressure is high, and inventory reduction is difficult. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [6] - Pulp: The price has reached a new low. The supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. Temporarily wait and see, paying attention to changes in port inventory and warehouse receipts [7] - Timber: The supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. Adopt a bullish trading strategy [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton continued to decline today, with weak spot trading and good new - cotton pre - sales. The purchase price of seed cotton has weakened, and the probability of a bumper harvest in Xinjiang is high, but the specific output estimate ranges from 720 to 770 million tons. Domestic demand in the peak season is weak, and spinning profits are poor, dragging down the cotton price. Sino - US trade negotiations have released positive signals, but details need to be tracked [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, the production progress in the south - central region accelerated in the second half of August, with increased sugar production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar showed a weak fluctuation. The sales rhythm this year is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market's focus has shifted to the next season's output forecast. The sugar output in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good, and subsequent weather and growth should be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price is running strongly. For new - season apples, the coloring of early - picked Fuji is slow, and the quality of ordered goods is average. The late - maturing Fuji is gradually being unbagged, and the fruit size is small this year. Due to the good price of early - maturing apples, farmers are bullish, and the opening price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high. However, the supply - side lacks positive drivers, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than expected. Adopt a bearish trading strategy [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber, and Synthetic rubber - Today, RU continued to decline slightly, NR first declined and then rose, and BR continued to decline. The current prices of domestic natural and synthetic rubbers are stable with a downward trend. The global natural - rubber supply is in the high - yield period, and the operating rate of domestic butadiene - rubber plants has dropped significantly. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires increased slightly last week, while that of semi - steel tires decreased slightly. Tire inventories continued to increase, and tire companies will arrange holidays for the National Day. The total natural - rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 461,200 tons last week, and the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber decreased to 12,200 tons [6] Pulp - The Zhengzhou futures price of pulp has dropped significantly, reaching a new low. The spot price of coniferous pulp and broad - leaved pulp is stable. As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China decreased by 79,000 tons to 2.033 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease. The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the supply of pulp is relatively loose. The demand is average, and downstream paper mills continue to implement cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement strategies. Temporarily wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuates. The port quotation has increased by 10 yuan. The arrival volume last week increased, and the quotation of New Zealand radiata pine in October has increased. Domestic traders' willingness to import has decreased, and the domestic supply may remain low. The port inventory decreased significantly last week, indicating the peak - season demand. The total inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Adopt a bullish trading strategy [8]