国投期货农产品日报-20250929

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (Domestic): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean (Imported): Not rated - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Hogs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand situation of different agricultural products varies, and the market performance also shows different trends. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of various factors such as production, inventory, policies, and seasons on the market [2][3][5]. - For different agricultural products, different investment strategies are recommended, including short - term tracking, long - term cautious optimism, and pre - holiday waiting and seeing [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean prices are currently strong, with low - protein soybeans on the market. The expected output of domestic soybeans is flat or slightly increased compared to last year due to increased planting area. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has widened. The price of US soybeans is weak due to seasonal harvest pressure and uncertain export prospects. The supply of domestic soybeans may be tight in the first quarter of next year, but the risk of supply gap will be alleviated. Focus on the performance of domestic soybeans after listing and the new Brazilian crop in the second quarter of next year [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - After Argentina's export policy was introduced, the prices of related products on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell sharply, with a weekly decline of 2.98%. After reaching the sales limit of $7 billion, Argentina cancelled the soybean tax - exemption policy. The domestic soybean meal inventory of oil mills has risen to 125 tons. The supply of soybeans from July to November is sufficient, and the annual output of domestic soybeans is expected to reach 21 million tons. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, and the possible supply gap will occur in the first quarter of next year. The short - term trend of soybean meal is affected by foreign policies, and long - term cautious optimism is maintained [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybeans are under seasonal harvest pressure, and China has not purchased US soybeans. The domestic soybean supply may be tight in the first quarter of next year, but the risk of supply gap will be alleviated. Palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. In the medium term, soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate within a range, and they face macro - risk tests [3]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures market shows a pattern of weak oil and strong meal, but the overall fluctuation is small. The supply of rapeseed is sufficient, which suppresses the price of rapeseed meal. The demand for rapeseed meal is limited due to low price - performance ratio and the approaching off - season of aquatic feed. The demand for rapeseed oil increases in autumn and winter, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [5]. Corn - The output of new - season corn is expected to increase due to favorable weather conditions. The opening price of new - season corn has dropped. Shandong's spot price is weak, and the supply is increasing. Corn is expected to fluctuate before and after the opening of new - season grain, and the Dalian corn futures are expected to remain weak at the bottom [6]. Live Hogs - The price of live hog futures has dropped significantly, and the valuation centers of near - and far - month contracts have shifted down. The supply of live hogs is abundant, and the spot price has reached a new low. The government has carried out small - scale frozen - pork purchases. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is high, and the industry is in a loss state. Attention should be paid to the process of capacity reduction and the impact of re - entry in the fourth quarter [7]. Eggs - The egg futures have significantly reduced their positions. The spot price has declined after reaching a high point on September 17. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will weaken. The industry needs to deeply reduce production capacity. The pressure of newly - laid hens is expected to decrease by the end of the year, and the peak of production capacity is expected to occur in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider long - position layouts for the far - month contracts in the first half of next year and pay attention to the exit of short - position funds for near - month contracts [8].