大宗商品周度报告：流动性出现扰动商品短期或震荡运行-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market rebounded after a correction last week, with an overall increase of 0.43%. Precious metals led the gains at 4.48%, followed by non - ferrous metals at 0.73%. Energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined by 0.06%, 1.23%, and 1.95% respectively. [2][7] - Due to uncertainties in the Fed's interest - rate cut path and the non - realization of expected domestic interest - rate cut policies, short - term liquidity is disrupted, and the commodity market may fluctuate. [2] - Different sectors have different short - term trends: precious metals may fluctuate; non - ferrous metals may remain stable; black commodities may fluctuate weakly; energy may fluctuate; chemical products face pressure; and agricultural products and oilseeds may fluctuate. [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Overall Performance: The commodity market rose 0.43% last week. Precious metals led with a 4.48% increase, non - ferrous metals rose 0.73%, while energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and black commodities declined. [2][7] - Top Gainers and Losers: Silver, fuel oil, and copper had the highest increases at 6.63%, 4.36%, and 3.28% respectively. Rapeseed meal, coking coal, and coke had the largest declines at 4.64%, 2.88%, and 2.65% respectively. [2][7] - Volatility: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to rise, especially for oilseeds. [2][7] - Funds: The overall market scale increased slightly, with net inflows in non - ferrous and precious metal sectors. [2][7] 3.2 Outlook - Precious Metals: PCE data met expectations, reducing pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. Uncertainties in interest - rate cut expectations may lead to short - term fluctuations. [3] - Non - Ferrous Metals: The stronger US dollar after the interest - rate meeting suppresses the sector, but domestic demand expectations and pre - holiday restocking support prices. The Grasberg copper mine accident affects supply and copper prices. The sector may remain stable in the short term. [3] - Black Commodities: Rebar demand improved, production stabilized, and inventory decreased. Steel mills have thin profits, and raw material supply is stable. The sector may fluctuate weakly in the short term. [3] - Energy: US inventory declines and geopolitical risks support oil prices. Geopolitical risks may rise around the National Day, but the rebound space is limited. The sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] - Chemical Products: Polyester sales increased, reducing inventory pressure, but inventory accumulation and low profits continue to pressure the industry. [4] - Agricultural Products: Argentina's agricultural policy changes and China's increased soybean purchases reduce the supply gap risk next year. Palm oil is in a production - reduction cycle, and the oilseed sector may fluctuate in the short term. [4] 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs: Most gold ETFs had positive returns, with a combined scale increase of 1.83% and a combined trading volume increase of 4.52%. [39] - Other ETFs: The energy - chemical ETF had a 0.63% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 1.81% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 1.82% return, and the silver futures fund had a 5.72% return. [39]