银河期货粕类日报-20250929

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market has entered a short - term slight oscillation phase. The international soybean market supply remains loose with significant overall pressure, and the upward space for US and Brazilian soybeans is limited. The domestic soybean meal supply - demand is relatively loose with inventory pressure. The rapeseed meal inventory is at a relatively low level, but the demand is also average, and the price lacks obvious fluctuations. The rebound space of the soybean meal inter - monthly spread may be limited, and the rapeseed meal inter - monthly spread may continue to show some downward pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Today, the US soybean market oscillated. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal also oscillated slightly. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal changed little. The inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined slightly [4]. - For futures prices, soybean meal contract 01 closed at 2933, down 4; contract 05 at 2743, down 8; contract 09 at 2852, down 6. Rapeseed meal contract 01 closed at 2416, up 11; contract 05 at 2323, down 4; contract 09 at 2407, unchanged [4]. - For spot basis, the basis of soybean meal in Tianjin remained at 40, in Dongguan increased from - 50 to - 40, and in Zhangjiagang remained at - 60. The basis of rapeseed meal in Nantong decreased from 65 to 44, in Guangdong decreased from 95 to 84, and in Guangxi decreased from 85 to 74 [4]. - For inter - monthly spreads, the 15 - spread of soybean meal increased from 186 to 190, the 59 - spread decreased from - 107 to - 109, and the 91 - spread decreased from - 79 to - 81. The 15 - spread of rapeseed meal increased from 78 to 93, the 59 - spread decreased from - 80 to - 84, and the 91 - spread decreased from 2 to - 9 [4]. - For cross - variety spreads, the 01 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased from 532 to 517, the 09 spread decreased from 451 to 445, and the 01 oil - meal ratio remained at 2.779 [4]. - For spot spreads, the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased from 328 to 332, the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal increased from 538 to 542, and the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal remained at 230 [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In the US, the ending stocks of the old - crop soybean balance sheet were slightly increased. The new - crop production slightly decreased in yield but increased in planted area, with overall supply slightly increasing. The price decline space is limited, and the market is mainly affected by exports [5]. - In South America, the old - crop soybean supply - demand is loose. The production of major exporting countries is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crushing volume by 8.21 million tons. The Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, and the price pressure exists, but the high price is due to optimistic export expectations [5]. - Internationally, the supply pressure of soybean meal is obvious. The annual crushing volume of major producing areas is expected to increase by 21.536 million tons, while the import volume of major importing countries only slightly increases [5]. - Domestically, the spot market of soybean meal is loose. As of September 26, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2672 million tons, the operating rate was 63.28%, the soybean inventory was 7.1991 million tons, up 3.63% from last week and 14.38% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, down 4.86% from last week and 3.04% year - on - year [7]. - The demand for domestic rapeseed meal is gradually weakening. As of September 26, the crushing volume of rapeseed in coastal oil mills was 20,000 tons, the operating rate was 5.33%, the rapeseed inventory was 26,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 15,000 tons, down 2,500 tons [7]. 3.3 Macro - analysis - The Sino - US Madrid negotiation was completed. Due to the lack of clear macro - guidance, the market is worried about the uncertainty of subsequent supply. However, China's long - term demand for US soybeans exists, so the price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [8]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to short a small amount of soybean meal [9]. - For arbitrage, a long spread between M11 and M1 is recommended [9]. - For options, a short strangle strategy is suggested [9]. 3.5 Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profit varies by origin and shipping date. For example, for Argentine soybeans with an 11 - month shipping date, the crushing profit was - 31.91, down from 0. For Brazilian soybeans, the crushing profit also changed with different shipping dates [10].