2025年4季度黑色金属分析报告：弱现实主导，盘面供给端仍存扰动

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. economic growth momentum is weakening, and the Federal Reserve has restarted preventive interest rate cuts. The market generally expects a high probability of a rate cut in October, but the future monetary policy path will still be based on economic data such as employment and inflation. The domestic economy is in a state of fluctuating recovery, and boosting domestic demand still requires policy drive [2][4][56][58]. - For steel products, the improvement in demand is limited, but the "anti - involution" policy is expected to slightly lift the price. The overall view of the fourth - quarter trend is neutral to bullish [8][9][84]. - For iron ore, the industry and macro factors are divergent, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore itself is relatively weak in the fourth quarter. The price increase is restricted by the profit contraction pressure of the industrial chain and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory, while the positive macro - narrative provides a lower - bound support for the price [14][15][130]. - For coking coal and coke, the policy environment is favorable, and a cautious and optimistic attitude is maintained. The coking coal and coke market had a significant rebound in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the "anti - involution" policy will support coal prices, but factors such as seasonal inventory accumulation, terminal demand resilience, and potential crude steel production reduction policies need to be considered [18][167][168]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Market Operation Logic - U.S.: The economic growth momentum has weakened, with the manufacturing sector remaining in the contraction range, the service sector being the main driving force for economic growth, the labor market growth almost stagnant, inflation showing a slight rebound, and core inflation remaining sticky. The Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts in September, and the market generally expects a high probability of a rate cut in October [2][23][28]. - Eurozone: The manufacturing contraction has intensified, while the service sector has become the key to stabilizing the economy. The overall inflation rate meets the ECB's target, but the core inflation rate remains firm. The ECB decided to maintain key interest rates unchanged in September, and the market's expectation of an October rate cut is uncertain [2][31][34]. - Domestic: The investment growth momentum has declined, with infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continuing to fall, and real estate development investment significantly dragging down overall investment. The consumption market shows weakening recovery momentum, structural differentiation, and diminishing policy effects. The foreign trade has maintained stable growth, with exports and imports both increasing for three consecutive months. The domestic price level is still low, but CPI is expected to gradually recover, and the decline of PPI is expected to continue to narrow [3][37][42][47]. Market Trend Judgment - Overseas, the U.S. economic growth momentum is weakening, and the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in October. The Eurozone economy is in a mild recovery, and the ECB is cautious about further rate cuts. - Domestically, the investment growth momentum is declining, but infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment are expected to stabilize and grow in the fourth quarter. The consumption market is expected to recover moderately, and foreign trade is expected to continue its stable growth. The price level is expected to gradually recover [56][57]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - Overseas economic trends and monetary policy changes, the evolution of U.S. tariff policies, overseas geopolitical risks, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand conditions [4][60]. 2. Steel Products Market Operation Logic - Real estate: The real - estate market has not yet bottomed out, and its impact on building materials is neutral to bearish [7][62]. - Exports: Steel exports have maintained growth in the first eight months, but the growth rate is expected to slow down in the fourth quarter due to trade frictions [8][64][66]. - Inventory: The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils is at a reasonable level, and the fourth - quarter de - stocking cycle will have little impact on prices [8][68]. - Crude steel production: The probability of a decline in annual crude steel production is high, with rebar production likely to be flat or slightly down and hot - rolled coil production likely to increase [8][70][72]. - Automobile market: The automobile market has entered the peak season, and production and sales are expected to reach new highs [8][73][75]. - Home appliance market: The home appliance market has grown under the "national subsidy" policy, but the previous consumption has overdrawn some future demand, and the quarterly growth rate may slow down [9][76][77]. Market Trend Judgment - The overall view of the fourth - quarter trend is neutral to bullish. Although the lack of downstream demand growth has a negative impact on prices, the "anti - involution" policy is expected to slightly lift the price center [84]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - Changes in U.S. trade policies, the introduction of unexpected macro - stimulus policies in China, and the introduction of substantive policies on domestic crude steel production control [9][86]. 3. Iron Ore Market Operation Logic - Market review: In the third quarter, iron ore prices fluctuated due to the "anti - involution" policy, terminal demand, and Fed rate cuts [14][88][89][91]. - Supply side: The fourth quarter is a high - shipping season for mainstream mines, but the annual increase of the four major mines is limited. Non - mainstream mines' short - term increase does not change the weak situation, and domestic mine production continues to be weak [14][97][118]. - Demand side: The fourth quarter is a seasonal demand off - season, but due to the current high steel - mill profit rate and strong expectations of macro - policy increments, the decline in iron ore demand is expected to be small. The annual production of pig iron is expected to increase [14][119]. - Inventory: The inventory of ports is expected to be basically stable in the fourth quarter, with the overall inventory lower than at the end of last year [15][121][129]. Market Trend Judgment - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the fourth quarter. The upper limit of the price is restricted by the industrial chain profit and inventory structure, while the lower limit is supported by macro - factors. The price of the main contract of Dalian Iron Ore is expected to be in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 100 - 105 US dollars/ton [15][130]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - The Fed's interest rate cut rhythm, the stability of overseas ore shipments, and domestic policy increments [15][132]. 4. Coking Coal and Coke Market Operation Logic - Third - quarter market review: In the third quarter of 2025, the coking coal and coke market had a significant rebound, with the price center rising. The market was driven by the "anti - involution" policy, supply - tightening expectations, and actual production declines [18][134][136]. - Coking coal: The reduction in coking coal mine production is limited, and the "anti - involution" policy has a positive impact on coal prices. The import volume of coking coal has rebounded in the third quarter, but the annual volume is still expected to decline. The inventory structure has been optimized, but seasonal inventory accumulation may occur in the fourth quarter [18][138][154]. - Coke: The coking industry's profitability has improved, and production has increased. However, exports are under pressure due to Indian import restrictions and the rise of Indonesian capacity. The high pig - iron production supports the rigid demand for coke, but the potential crude steel production reduction policy needs attention. The coke inventory is at a medium level [18][156][163]. Market Trend Judgment - In the fourth quarter, the "anti - involution" policy will support coal prices, but the market may face a supply - demand rebalancing test. A cautious and optimistic attitude is maintained towards the coking coal and coke market [18][167][168]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors - The production rhythm of coking coal, coke, and steel, changes in import coal volume, and the transmission of demand negative - feedback pressure [18][170].