第五大矿山投产在即，四大矿山会减产挺价吗？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [7] Core Insights - The upcoming production of the fifth largest mine, West Simandou, is expected to significantly impact the iron ore supply landscape, potentially leading to a downward adjustment in iron ore prices to $75-$80 per ton [5][4] - Historical data suggests that the major four mining companies are unlikely to reduce production in response to the new supply, as they have previously maintained output despite price declines [5][4] - The four major mining companies are projected to increase supply by 1.1% and 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a continued growth trend [5][4] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - Pre-holiday inventory replenishment led to a temporary rise in steel prices, but limited sustainability in demand caused a subsequent decline [4] - Daily average pig iron production reached 2.4236 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.34 thousand tons [4] - Total steel inventory decreased slightly by 0.55% week-on-week, while year-on-year it increased by 9.24% [4] Price Trends - Shanghai rebar prices fell to 3,240 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan, while hot-rolled steel prices dropped to 3,360 yuan per ton, down 80 yuan [4] - The immediate profit for rebar steel is estimated at -37 yuan per ton, with a lagging cost profit of -42 yuan per ton [4] Future Projections - The West Simandou project is expected to reach full production capacity of 60 million tons per year within 30 months of its anticipated October 2025 launch [5] - The cash cost of iron ore from the West Simandou project is projected to be around $50 per ton, positioning it favorably within the global cost curve [5]