资产配置日报：节前红包-20250929

Core Insights - The equity market experienced a significant rebound on September 29, with the CSI 300 index rising by 1.54% and the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.90% [1] - Key sectors leading the rally included solid-state batteries, energy storage, industrial metals, and brokerage firms, indicating a shift towards cyclical stocks alongside technology narratives [1][2] - The bond market continued to adjust, with pressures from fund redemptions and a hot equity market suppressing sentiment, leading to an increase in yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds [1][5] Sector Summaries New Energy - Solid-state batteries and energy storage saw respective increases of 4.25% and 3.09% in the Wind index, driven by production expectations and strong demand [2] - Notable developments included research advancements from Tsinghua University in high-safety, high-energy-density solid-state lithium batteries and reports of strong domestic demand for energy storage cells [2] Cyclical Sectors - The cyclical sector showed improvement, with industrial enterprises' profits rising by 20.4% year-on-year in August, catalyzing expectations for fundamental recovery [2] - The Wind industrial metal index, engineering machinery, and chemical indices rose by 4.21%, 3.05%, and 2.30%, respectively, with copper being a focal point due to supply shortages from the Grasberg mine in Indonesia [2] Brokerage Firms - The Wind brokerage index increased by 4.89%, benefiting from average daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan from July to September and optimistic third-quarter earnings expectations for brokerages [3] - Despite a recent pullback in the securities market, ETF funds continued to flow into brokerage ETFs, indicating a potential for a rebound in this sector [3] Hong Kong Market - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.89% and 2.08%, respectively, with Chinese brokerages leading the gains [4] - Notable inflows included Alibaba with 5.172 billion HKD, reflecting investor confidence in its AI narrative, while other tech stocks showed mixed results [4] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market faced renewed downward pressure, primarily due to ongoing redemption pressures from funds, with significant net redemptions observed in bond funds since September [5][6] - The performance of 7-year and 10-year government bonds improved, potentially linked to increased allocations from major banks [7] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market showed signs of cooling, with a notable decline in black metals and a general risk-off sentiment leading to net outflows of 12.7 billion yuan across the market [10][12] - Policy signals aimed at stabilizing growth were released, with the government focusing on key industries such as petrochemicals and non-ferrous metals to boost industrial confidence [13]