Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the coal price is expected to continue its downward trend, and the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high. The domestic methanol operating rate will continue to reach new highs, and the overall domestic supply will be relatively abundant. The import volume is expected to drop to 125 - 130 tons, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. The overall demand in October has no increment, and it is difficult for traditional demand to show bright spots under the mediocre macro - background [5][91]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate at the bottom in October. Attention should be paid to the impact of gas restrictions in Iran, with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton [6][91]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Foreword Summary - In October, on the supply side, after the peak summer coal - using season ends, the coal price is expected to decline, and the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high. The domestic methanol operating rate will continue to rise, and the overall supply will be abundant. The import volume will decrease, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. On the demand side, there is no increment in overall demand, and traditional demand lacks bright spots [5]. - The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (oscillating at the bottom, paying attention to the impact of Iranian gas restrictions with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton), arbitrage (long - term attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in inter - period arbitrage and repair opportunities in PP - 3MA cross - variety arbitrage), and options trading (selling put options around the lower margin of 2300) [6][7][91]. 2. Fundamental Situation (1) Market Review - In September 2025, the spot price of methanol in mainstream domestic regions showed an overall oscillating and weakening trend. The macro - environment had some support for domestic commodities, but the methanol futures returned to the fundamentals due to factors such as the high port inventory, showing a weak downward trend [11][12]. - On the supply side, the coal - to - methanol profit was high, and the supply in the inland market was loose. In the port area, the MTO device operating rate was stable. The international device operating rate declined from a high level, and the methanol price was weakly operating [17][23][29]. (2) Supply Analysis - From the end of this year to the first half of next year, there will still be some new methanol production capacities put into operation. In 2025, the domestic methanol planned new capacity is 1010 tons, but the actual new capacity for external sales is only 190 tons [31][37]. - In September, the new domestic methanol device production was limited. The coal price first rose and then fell, and the coal - to - methanol profit remained high. The coal - to - methanol operating rate was high, and the domestic supply was loose. In October, the coal price is expected to continue to decline, and the coal - to - methanol profit will still be high. The domestic supply will remain loose, and the enterprise inventory is expected to gradually accumulate [34][41][51]. (3) October Import Forecast - From January to September 2025, the domestic cumulative imported methanol is expected to be about 9.7 million tons. In 2024, the international new methanol capacity was 3.83 million tons, and there will still be a large amount of new international capacity in 2025 [54][62]. - Due to some Iranian devices being shut down, the daily output decreased from 40,000 tons to around 30,000 tons. The October import volume is expected to be maintained at 1.25 million tons. The port inventory accumulation may end [64][67]. (4) October Demand Slightly Increases, but the Macro - level Pressure Remains High - The macro - economic recovery is slow. The manufacturing PMI in August showed some improvement, but trade and geopolitical conflicts still interfere with the domestic macro - situation [73]. - In October, there is no new MTO device put into operation. Some MTO devices are under the pressure of being eliminated. The traditional downstream demand in September is difficult to increase, and the fundamental situation of each sector is differentiated [78][80][88]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - In October, on the supply side, the coal price will decline, the coal - to - methanol profit will remain high, and the domestic supply will be abundant. The import volume will decrease, and the port inventory accumulation will slow down. On the demand side, there is no increment in overall demand, and traditional demand lacks bright spots [91]. - The recommended strategies include unilateral trading (oscillating at the bottom, paying attention to the impact of Iranian gas restrictions with a support level around 2300 yuan/ton), arbitrage (long - term attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in inter - period arbitrage and repair opportunities in PP - 3MA cross - variety arbitrage), and options trading (selling put options around the lower margin of 2300) [91].
银河期货甲醇月报-20250929
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-09-29 08:04