锌季度报告：内外劈叉亟待修复

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Long - term bearish on zinc (ZN) [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in Q3 2025, but there are significant differences among officials. The short - term interest - rate cut path is uncertain. In the medium - to - long - term, the global monetary policy is expected to be loose, which will support the non - ferrous metals sector. Meanwhile, China's economic pressure is emerging, and policy support is urgently needed. Attention should be paid to the policy introduction during the 15th Five - Year Plan in Q4 [1][3][110] - The current domestic zinc ingot production is approaching the threshold, with limited incremental output in Q4. Demand is also mediocre. The supply - surplus pattern of zinc fundamentals is expected to continue, suppressing the upside space of zinc prices. However, the downside space of zinc is limited. The Fed's restart of the interest - rate cut cycle and the expected global liquidity loosening support the non - ferrous metals sector, and the waiting - to - be - repaired internal - external price ratio also limits the lower limit of SHFE zinc. It is expected that the center of zinc prices will move down slightly with small fluctuations in Q4 [5][111][113] - Unilateral trading has low cost - effectiveness. Pay attention to short - allocation opportunities within the sector. The contango/backwardation spread maintains the reverse - arbitrage logic, but the space is limited. In addition, for internal - external trading, pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage opportunities when the internal inventory is transferred overseas [2][113] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Price Trend Review: In Q3 2025, the prices of SHFE zinc and LME zinc showed a divergent trend. SHFE zinc showed an inverted "V" shape, while LME zinc oscillated upwards. The price fluctuations were affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, labor strikes at refineries, and inventory trends [6] - Spread and Premium/Discount Changes: In June 2025, the zinc social inventory started to accumulate, and the basis was quickly adjusted downwards, turning into a discount at the end of July. As of September 22, the average spot premium/discount in Shanghai dropped to - 60 yuan/ton. The domestic basis is at a low level in recent years, while the LME basis is at a high level. In the future, the domestic spot is likely to maintain a discount pattern. Pay attention to reverse - arbitrage opportunities [12] 3.2 Macro Aspects - US: The interest - rate cut cycle restarted, but there are differences among Fed officials, and the interest - rate cut pace may be cautious. In the short - term, the interest - rate cut is in line with market expectations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is expected to promote global liquidity release and support the non - ferrous metals sector. However, the US economic recession probability still exists as the non - farm payroll data was disappointing [18][19][21] - China: In Q3, economic data declined significantly. In August, investment, consumption, and production data all declined. Economic pressure is emerging, and policy support is urgently needed. Attention should be paid to the policy introduction during the 15th Five - Year Plan in Q4 [32][34][38] 3.3 Fundamental Overview - Raw Material End: - Global zinc ore supply has recovered significantly. In 2025, overseas zinc ore production increased year - on - year, and in Q4, overseas mines may increase production to meet the annual targets. Domestic zinc concentrate production is stable, but northern mines will have seasonal maintenance at the end of Q4. Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level and are expected to continue in Q4 due to winter storage demand [39][41][47] - In Q3 2025, the processing fees of domestic and imported zinc ores showed a divergent trend. The domestic processing fee increase was limited and has reached an inflection point, while the imported processing fee continued to rise. In Q4, the imported processing fee still has room to rise [56][58] - Smelting End: - Global refined zinc production decreased in H1 2025, with a significant internal - external divergence. Domestic zinc ingot production increased due to good profits, while overseas refineries had low operating rates due to high costs and low profits [62] - Domestic zinc ingot production is approaching the threshold, with limited incremental output in Q4. Recycled zinc will bring some incremental output, and the key incremental output of primary zinc lies in the Huoshaoyun project, but its production start is slower than expected. Overseas refineries have limited incremental output, and the supply of overseas zinc ingots is expected to remain tight. China's refined zinc imports decreased in 2025, and the zinc ingot export window is almost open [66][69][71] - Demand End: - The downstream demand in the initial stage showed no obvious peak - off - peak characteristics, and there are concerns about future demand. The export of galvanized sheets was affected by the anti - dumping tax in Vietnam, and the future export is expected to be weak [73][80][85] - Infrastructure investment growth slowed down in 2025, but infrastructure is still the key support for zinc consumption. The real estate market is still the main drag on zinc consumption, but the demand for zinc may improve slightly in Q4. The home appliance industry is expected to weaken due to the shortage of national subsidies and the "de - stocking" in the overseas market. The automobile industry maintained high growth in production and sales in Q3, and the demand for zinc is expected to be good in the peak season [88][91][100] - Inventory: Since June 2025, the domestic zinc ingot social inventory has been accumulating, while the LME zinc inventory has continued to decline rapidly. The internal - external inventory divergence has intensified, and the export window is approaching. If the export window opens, the domestic inventory may be transferred overseas, which will change the inventory divergence trend [104]