格林大华期货早盘提示-20250930

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position for IF, IH, IC, and IM in stock index futures [1]. Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the market style shifted, with the brokerage sector surging and driving up the major indices of the two markets. After a period of oscillation and digestion since September, the market center is expected to rise further in October. In the fourth quarter, the A-share market is expected to gradually rise in wide - range oscillations [1][2]. - Most securities firms are optimistic about the post - holiday market and suggest 'holding stocks during the holiday'. The underlying logic supporting the market rally remains unchanged [1][2]. - China has become the preferred market for stock investment, and international capital is actively increasing its positions in China's technology sector [2]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, the brokerage sector soared, leading to an increase in the major indices of the two markets. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.16 trillion yuan, with little change. The CSI 300 index closed at 4620 points, up 70 points or 1.54%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2973 points, up 32 points or 1.09%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7350 points, up 109 points or 1.51%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7497 points, up 100 points or 1.36% [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, those with the highest gains were the Securities ETF Leader, Battery ETF, New Energy Vehicle ETF, Non - ferrous Metals ETF, and Mining ETF, while those with the highest losses were the Coal ETF, Bank ETF, and Energy ETF. Among the sector indices of the two markets, the leading gainers were the Energy Metals, Household Appliance Parts, Securities, Battery, and Industrial Metals indices, and the leading losers were the Education and Training, Coal Mining, E - commerce, Cultural and Entertainment Supplies, and Forestry indices [1]. - Net inflows of funds into the stock index futures of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were 9.5 billion, 4 billion, 3.3 billion, and 3.3 billion yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - The Political Bureau meeting studied major issues in formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan, emphasizing high - quality development, new development concepts, and the development of new - quality productivity, as well as comprehensive deep - seated reforms and high - level opening - up [1]. - The 'Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Non - ferrous Metals Industry' was issued. From 2025 to 2026, the average annual growth of the added value of the non - ferrous metals industry is about 5%, and the output of recycled metals will exceed 20 million tons. An 'Artificial Intelligence + Non - ferrous Metals' campaign will be carried out, and important non - ferrous metal futures trading varieties and financial derivatives will be enriched [1]. - Many brokerage analysts issued investment strategies for the fourth - quarter A - share market, expecting the market to gradually rise in wide - range oscillations in the fourth quarter under the conditions of sufficient liquidity, economic recovery, and policy support, and suggesting focusing on the technology growth theme [1]. - Most securities firms are optimistic about the post - holiday market and recommend 'holding stocks during the holiday'. They believe that although some funds may be cautious before the holiday, the underlying logic of the market rally remains unchanged [1][2]. - Huang Renxun, the founder of NVIDIA, called on the US government to relax export restrictions to China, stating that China is rapidly developing in the chip manufacturing field and that competition in the Chinese market is in the interests of both China and the US [1]. - The AI computing power revolution has restructured the supply and demand of the memory chip industry. Samsung Electronics raised the prices of LPDDR4X, LPDDR5, and LPDDR5X memory products by 30%, NAND flash prices increased by 5% - 10%, and Micron Technology notified customers of a 20% - 30% price increase [2]. - The strong demand for silver mainly comes from the industrial sector, especially in photovoltaic power generation, power grid upgrading, and automotive electronics. The investment demand for silver has also significantly recovered, with the silver ETF having a cumulative net inflow of over 95 million ounces in the first half of the year, exceeding the total of last year, and the total position reaching about 1.13 billion ounces, approaching the historical peak again [2]. - The price of London gold exceeded $3800. According to Bank of America data, $5.6 billion flowed into the gold market last week, and the inflow in the past four weeks reached a record of $17.6 billion. The World Gold Council said that risks from the US are the main driving force for the recent rise in gold prices [2]. - BofA strategist Michael Hartnett pointed out that the credit spreads of technology stocks are at multi - year lows, indicating that the rally of AI - driven technology stocks is not in a dangerous state [2]. Market Logic - The market style shifted on Monday, with the brokerage sector soaring and driving up the major indices. Most securities firms are optimistic about the post - holiday market, and investors' optimism is rising. China has become the preferred market for stock investment [1][2]. Future Market Outlook - In the fourth quarter, the A - share market is expected to gradually rise in wide - range oscillations under the conditions of sufficient liquidity, economic recovery, and policy support. After the holiday, the market is expected to reach a new level, and long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index [1][2]. Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: After the holiday, the market is expected to rise. Under the style shift, long positions in stock index futures should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index. Long positions in stock indices can be increased on the last trading day before the holiday [2]. - Stock index option trading: Buy out - of - the - money long - term call options for stock index options [3].