金信期货日刊-20250930

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous rise in the price of Shanghai silver futures is the result of the combined effects of macro - expectations, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. In the short term, there are risks, but in the long - term, the continuation of the interest - rate cut cycle and the growth of green energy demand will support the silver price [3]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that the pre - holiday market will continue to fluctuate at a high level [6]. - For gold, considering the long holiday, it is recommended to close long positions to avoid risks [10]. - For iron ore, the supply is stable, the steel mills are gradually resuming production, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high in the high - level wide - range oscillation [13][14]. - For glass, it is in an oscillatory upward trend, and a low - buying strategy can be maintained [18]. - For soybean oil, high inventory restricts the price increase space, and it should be treated with a bearish view in oscillation [22]. - For pulp, it is expected to be boosted before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but there is no improvement yet. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the low - level oscillation [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Shanghai Silver Futures - The price of Shanghai silver futures' main contract closed at 10,939 yuan/kg on September 29, with a single - day increase of 3.92%, reaching a phased high [3]. - Macro factors: The dovish speech of the new Fed governor supports a 150 - basis - point interest rate cut this year, and the market expects interest rate cuts in the next two meetings, reducing the cost of holding silver. Geopolitical tensions in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East lead to the continuous inflow of safe - haven funds into the precious metals market [3]. - Fundamental factors: In 2025, the global silver supply - demand gap is expected to reach 3,659 tons, with a continuous shortage for five years. The significant increase in photovoltaic installed capacity drives the surge in industrial silver demand, and as 70% of silver is produced as a by - product of copper, lead, and zinc, production expansion is restricted [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures closed with a mid -阳线. The 2024 pension fund investment report shows stable operation, and the Politburo meeting aims to promote sustainable economic development. The pre - holiday market is expected to continue high - level oscillation [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold and silver are accelerating their upward movement, but due to the long holiday, it is recommended to close long positions [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The supply is stable, steel mills are gradually resuming production, and the molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. Near the National Day, steel mills start to replenish inventory. Technically, it closed with a negative line today but is in a high - level wide - range oscillation, suitable for high - selling and low - buying [13][14]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Technically, it is in an oscillatory upward trend. The daily melting is basically stable, the factory inventory is decreasing, but the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. A low - buying strategy can be maintained [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - On September 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.26 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100,000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 110,000 tons. High inventory restricts the price increase space [22]. Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong is stable, the port inventory starts to decline slightly, remaining at a medium - high level. There is an expected boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement is seen yet. It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the low - level oscillation [26].