Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The new grain seasonal supply is loose, leading to a continuous decline in spot prices. The peak of new grain listing is approaching, and there is a significant risk in spot prices during the National Day holiday [4]. - The short - covering action in the soybean No.1 futures market continues, but the rebound of futures prices slows down [4]. - The auction has restarted with good transaction performance [4]. - The domestic soybean market is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the short - term supply surplus exerts great pressure on prices. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, there is high spot risk, and it is recommended to hold short positions in futures during the holiday [6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Prediction - The price range prediction for the soybean No.1 11 - contract in the current month is 3850 - 4000, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 31.4% [3]. 3.2 Risk Strategies - Inventory Management for Sellers: - For planting entities with high demand for selling new beans after autumn harvest but facing large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to short the soybean No.1 futures (A2511) with a 30% hedging ratio when the price rebounds to the 4000 - 4050 range [3]. - When new grains are concentratedly listed and sellers' bargaining power weakens, it is recommended to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% ratio at a price range of 30 - 50 to increase the selling price [3]. - Procurement Management for Buyers: For those worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Consider going long on A2603 and A2605 after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [3]. 3.3 Market Situation Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: - The success rate of the last two state - reserve auctions was good, mainly due to the lower reserve price. Although it increased the spot supply, the improved transaction indicates market vitality [4]. - The short - side of the 11 - contract continued to significantly reduce positions recently, supporting the futures price to maintain a rebound [4]. - The purchase demand driven by the grain - returning operation in the two - way auction provides short - term support to the market [4]. - Likely Negative Factors: The prices of most soybean No.1 contracts declined from September 26 to September 29, with the 01, 03, 05, 07, and 09 contracts falling by - 0.23%, - 0.20%, - 0.23%, - 0.15%, and - 0.08% respectively, while the 11 - contract rose by 0.08% [4].
产业风险管理日报：南华豆-20250930
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-30 01:00