冠通期货资讯早间报-20250930

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of domestic and international futures markets, important macro - economic news, and the situation of various industries. It includes price fluctuations in different futures sectors, policy developments in multiple industries, and the performance of financial markets at home and abroad, providing a multi - faceted view of the current economic and market situation [3][10][37]. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Futures Market - Domestic futures主力合约跌多涨少，沪金涨1.02%，沪银涨0.66%，SC原油等跌超2% [3] - International agricultural futures多数下跌，美大豆跌0.44%，美豆粕涨0.15% [4] - International precious metal futures普遍收涨，COMEX黄金涨1.42%报3862.90美元/盎司，COMEX白银涨0.97%报47.11美元/盎司 [5] - International oil prices全线下跌，美油主力合约跌3.86%报63.18美元/桶，布伦特原油主力合约跌3.51%报66.79美元/桶 [6] - London basic metals多数上涨，LME期锡涨2.79%报35465.00美元/吨，LME期铜涨2.43%报10428.50美元/吨 [8] Important News Macro News - The Politburo will discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20 - 23 [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting new policy - based financial tools worth 500 billion yuan for project capital [10] - Six ministries issued a plan for the machinery industry's stable growth from 2025 - 2026, aiming for an average annual revenue growth of about 3.5% and revenue exceeding 10 trillion yuan [11] - As of September 29, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) dropped 10.7% [12] - The US Senate will vote on a bill to avoid a government shutdown, and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will suspend operations during a shutdown [13] - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, with some supporting and some advocating for maintaining a tight policy [13] - Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the Gaza conflict, which Israel has accepted and Hamas will review [13] - Iran responded that European and American sanctions are unjust and illegal [14] Energy and Chemical Futures - China's nitrogen fertilizer industry faces challenges due to weak demand and price decline, and the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association will hold a market analysis meeting [16] - As of September 29, 2025, Jiangsu's pure benzene port inventory decreased 0.93% month - on - month and increased 35.90% year - on - year [16] - Saudi Arabia is expected to raise November crude oil prices for Asian buyers, with a possible increase of 20 - 40 cents per barrel [18] Metal Futures - PT Mitra Murni Perkasa's nickel smelter in Balikpapan is expected to be fully operational in early 2026, with an annual nickel processing capacity of about 21,000 nickel tons [20] - As of September 29, national zinc ingot social inventory decreased [20] - Indonesia's president ordered the closure of 1000 illegal tin mines in Bangka - Belitung [21] - Bank of America raised its copper price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [22] - In the 4th week of September 2025, Brazil's copper and aluminum ore shipments decreased compared to last year [22] - Gold prices exceeded $3830, and the value of US gold reserves exceeded $1 trillion [24] Black - Series Futures - From September 22 - 28, 2025, China's iron ore arrivals at ports decreased, while global iron ore shipments increased [26] - Three coal mines in Linfen will stop production for 3 - 7 days, affecting about 206,000 tons of raw coal [26] - In September 2025, the coking coal long - term agreement price increased [27] - Tangshan's section steel mills will implement production control until the end of October, with weak market transactions [27] - In the 4th week of September 2025, Brazil's iron ore shipments decreased compared to last year [29] Agricultural Futures - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to decline to about 1.7 million tons by the end of the year due to seasonal production slowdown and increased exports [31] - As of September 26, domestic soybean crushing volume decreased, and it is expected to drop to about 1.8 million tons before the holiday [31] - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting progress reached 3.2% [32] - US private exporters reported corn sales to Mexico and unknown destinations [32] - As of September 25, US soybean export inspection volume was 593,956 tons [32] - As of September 27, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 3.5% [33] - In the 4th week of September 2025, Brazil's soybean shipments increased compared to last year [35] - As of September 28, US soybean and corn's good - to - excellent rates and harvest rates were reported [35] Financial Market Finance - A - shares rose, with securities stocks surging in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.74% [37] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.89%, and southbound funds had a net sell of HK$1.654 billion [37] - Over 60% of private equity institutions plan to hold high positions during the holiday and are optimistic about the post - holiday A - share market [37] - The capital market is cracking down on illegal activities, and penalties have increased significantly during the 14th Five - Year Plan [38] - Stock - bond constant ETFs are expected to be launched this year [38] Industry - Six ministries issued a plan for the machinery industry's stable growth from 2025 - 2026 [39] - Beijing's real estate developers are accelerating the launch of new projects in September [39] - The China Household Electrical Appliance Association called for fair competition [39] Overseas - Trump's Gaza peace plan was accepted by Israel, and aid will be provided if the plan is implemented [41] - Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on overseas - made movies and furniture [41] - The value of US gold reserves exceeded $1 trillion, potentially releasing about $99 billion in funds [41] - Fed officials have different views on interest rates and inflation [42] - US existing home sales contracts in August increased by 4% month - on - month [43] - A Japanese central bank official called for policy rate adjustment [43] International Stock Markets - US stocks rose slightly, with the Dow up 0.15%, the S&P 500 up 0.26%, and the Nasdaq up 0.48% [45] - European stocks rose slightly, with the German DAX up 0.02%, the French CAC40 up 0.13%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.16% [45] - The SEC chair promised to promote minimal regulation and may cancel quarterly earnings reports [45] - Goldman Sachs upgraded US stocks to overweight for the next three months [46] - Electronic Arts will be privatized for $55 billion [46] - AstraZeneca plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange [47] Commodities - International precious metal futures rose, with gold and silver prices increasing [49] - Oil prices fell due to increased supply expectations [49] - London basic metals mostly rose, and China's eight - ministry plan will support basic metal demand [49] Bonds - The domestic bond market weakened, with 30 - year Treasury bond yields rising [50] - In August, China issued 980.1 billion yuan in local government bonds [50] - Shanghai is promoting the high - quality development of free - trade offshore bonds [50] - US Treasury yields fell due to economic concerns [52] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on Monday, and the central parity rate was adjusted up [53] - As of the end of June, China's banking industry had a net external financial asset of $234.4 billion [53] - In the week of September 26, the RMB exchange rate index rose [53] - Switzerland and the US issued a joint statement on exchange rates [54] - The US dollar index fell on Monday, and most non - US currencies rose [54] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Various economic data such as PMI, inflation, and housing data will be released in different countries [57] - Central banks in Japan, Australia, the US, and Europe will have policy - related speeches and meetings [59] - There are corporate events such as the listing of new stocks and the release of financial reports [59]