原油：节前做多波动率、正套持有

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests going long on volatility and holding long positions in calendar spreads for crude oil before the holiday [1]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Oil Product Arbitrage Flows - Various oil product arbitrage routes are presented, including gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, HSFO, and naphtha. Some routes are open, while others are closed, with corresponding price differentials [2][4]. 3.2 Crude Oil Market Dynamics and Spreads - Diesel: Global demand is expected to be flat year - on - year, with 3Q25 showing moderate growth and 4Q25 being weak. Diesel cracking spreads have increased by $4 per barrel this month. The attack on Russian refineries may further tighten the global balance [5]. - Jet/Kero: Global demand growth is slowing, but aviation fuel remains a growth driver. Asian demand in 4Q25 is expected to increase by 140,000 barrels per day [5]. - Gasoline: Global demand growth is slowing. Chinese demand is decreasing due to the rapid penetration of new energy vehicles, while Indian and Southeast Asian demand is increasing [5]. 3.3 Crude Oil Cross - Regional Arbitrage - Different crude oil varieties are considered for cross - regional arbitrage in markets such as USGC, USAC, NWE, and Med. Some arbitrage opportunities are open, while others are closed, with corresponding values [6][7][8]. 3.4 Key Market News - President Trump has set conditions for Hamas regarding hostage release. If Hamas refuses, Israel will receive full support to destroy Hamas [9]. - The Nigerian government will hold talks with the labor union to resolve the crude oil production halt threat at the Dangote refinery, which has a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day [9]. - The EU has restored sanctions on Iran, including restrictions on crude oil procurement and transportation [10]. 3.5 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral view [11].