玉米、淀粉产业链周报-20250930

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - New - season supply pressure is emerging, with new grain quotes dropping after a high opening, and prices will face pressure during the peak listing period [1]. - The current basis is at a relatively high level, and there is a risk of decline as a large amount of new grain enters the market [1]. - CBOT corn is consolidating at a low level, digesting the pressure of a bumper harvest forecast and awaiting further supply - side guidance [1]. - The price of Dalian corn futures has declined again. Attention should be paid to the cumulative risk of spot prices during the National Day holiday. It is recommended to hold short positions or remain on the sidelines [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - Corn Futures: From September 26 to September 29, 2025, corn 11 dropped from 2178 to 2159, a decrease of 19 or - 0.87%; corn 01 dropped from 2139 to 2135, a decrease of 4 or - 0.19%; other contracts also showed varying degrees of decline, except for corn 09 which remained unchanged [1]. - Corn Starch Futures: Corn starch 11 rose from 2480 to 2483, an increase of 3 or 0.12%, while other contracts such as corn starch 01, 03, etc. showed small declines [1]. - Wheat Average Price: It rose from 2448 to 2450, an increase of 2 or 0.08% [1]. - Spot and Basis: For corn, the prices in ports like Jinzhou, Shekou, and Harbin remained unchanged, with Jinzhou Port main - contract basis rising by 19 to 141; for corn starch, prices in Shandong, Jilin, and Heilongjiang remained unchanged, and Shandong main - contract basis dropped by 3 to 297 [9]. - US Corn and Related Products: CBOT corn main - contract remained at 421.5, COBT soybean main - contract dropped from 1009.25 to 1004.5, a decrease of 4.75 or - 0.47%, CBOT wheat main - contract dropped from 519 to 518.75, a decrease of 0.25 or - 0.05%. The US Gulf完税 price dropped from 2151.47 to 2133.7, a decrease of 17.77 or - 0.83%, with an import profit of 326.3; the US West完税 price dropped from 2008.88 to 1993.92, a decrease of 14.96 or - 0.74%, with an import profit of 466.08 [21]. Market Factors - Positive Factors: The State Grain Reserve Corporation has started purchasing new - season corn, alleviating the market's pessimistic sentiment; rainfall in some North China production areas has delayed the harvest, resulting in a tight supply of old - season grain [1]. - Negative Factors: Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the short - term supply surplus is putting pressure on prices; the mid - and downstream acquisition mentality is cautious, waiting for lower prices [1].