集运指数（欧线）：关注宣涨与地缘事件发酵

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - On September 29, the container shipping index (European Line) fluctuated weakly. The main 2510 contract closed at 1115.0 points, down 3.11%, with a reduction of 3117 lots. The second - main 2512 contract closed at 1756.3 points, down 1.36%, with a reduction of 1012 lots. The probability of the price increase implementation is low due to the uncertain loading rate of the PA Alliance. Attention should be paid to whether msk adjusts the price in the two trading days of this week, and other shipping companies may adjust the freight rates for late October after the holiday [10]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the number of blank sailings in September decreased by 1 to 6. The weekly average capacity in September remained at 296,000 TEU/week. The weekly average capacity in October was slightly revised down to 265,000 TEU/week, and that in November was 308,000 TEU/week. The weekly average capacity in November increased by 9.4% year - on - year and 16.1% month - on - month [11]. - In terms of macro and geopolitics, Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the Israel - Hamas conflict. Netanyahu agreed to the plan, but the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Jihad) regarded it as a fuse to detonate the regional situation. China's counter - measures may affect the operation of Matson (US) shipping company and increase the complexity of the US line competition pattern, with limited impact on the European line [12]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: EC2510 closed at 1115.0, down 3.11%, with a trading volume of 16,679 and an open interest of 29,314, a decrease of 3,117. EC2512 closed at 1,756.3, down 1.36%, with a trading volume of 11,879 and an open interest of 20,683, a decrease of 1,012. EC2602 closed at 1,667.0, down 1.47%, with a trading volume of 4,011 and an open interest of 8,852, an increase of 84 [1]. - Freight Index: The SCFIS for the European route was 1,254.92, down 12.9% week - on - week; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1,193.64, down 11.6% week - on - week. The SCFI for the European route was 971 $/TEU, down 7.7% bi - weekly; the SCFI for the US West route was 1,460 $/FEU, down 10.8% bi - weekly [1]. - Spot Freight Rates: Different shipping companies' spot freight rates for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route varied. For example, Maersk's price for a 40'GP was 1820 $/40'GP, and MSC's was 1515 $/40'GP [1]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 97.95, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.11 [1]. 2. Macro News - Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the Israel - Hamas conflict. Netanyahu agreed, but Jihad regarded it as a plan of aggression, and it was predicted that Hamas would reject it [8][12]. - China announced counter - measures, including charging special fees on ships from certain countries and regions, and restricting their entry and exit from Chinese ports, which may affect the operation of Matson (US) shipping company [9][12]. 3. Shipping Company Pricing Strategies - Gemini Alliance: Maersk's opening price for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the 42nd week was 1800 $/FEU (some voyages were 1870 $/FEU), up 400 $/FEU from the 40th - 41st weeks. HPL - SPOT was 1400 $/FEU in the first half of October, and it planned to increase to 2000 $/FEU in the second half of October and 2500 $/FEU in early November [14]. - OA Alliance: OOCL and COSCO dropped to 1400 - 1500 $/FEU in the first half of October. OOCL planned to increase to 2000 $/FEU in the second half of October, and COSCO's announced increase level was revised to 2000 $/FEU. Evergreen maintained 1610 $/FEU online, and updated to 1400 - 1500 $/FEU for the early - October sailings offline. CMA was 1620 $/FEU in the first half of October and planned to increase to 2220 $/FEU in late October [14]. - PA Alliance: Yang Ming decreased to 1250 $/FEU since September 29. ONE decreased to 1300 $/FEU since September 25. HMM was 1506 $/FEU online and around 1400 $/FEU offline, with the lowest price in the Shanghai area around 1200 $/FEU. ONE and HMM announced price increases for the second half of October, reporting 2035 and 2002 $/FEU respectively [14]. - MSC: It decreased to 1390 $/FEU from September 29 to October 14, with a SPOT price of 1240 $/FEU, and planned to increase to 2240 $/FEU in the second half of October, with the SPOT price increasing to 2040 $/FEU [14]. 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European Line) was 0, indicating a neutral trend [15].