研究所晨会观点精萃-20250930

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The domestic economic recovery has slowed, and attention should be paid to the impact of September PMI data, US tariff policies, and US economic data and Fed actions on the domestic market [3][4]. - During the National Day holiday, overseas markets may experience significant fluctuations, and attention should be paid to their impact on the domestic market [4]. - The short - term risk appetite in the domestic market may be suppressed by the US plan to impose additional tariffs on electronic chips, and attention should be paid to the impact on China and China's countermeasures [4]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold long positions in the short - term due to potential increased volatility [5]. - The steel market is likely to continue to compress profits and fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to post - holiday price and inventory data [6][7]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term and may decline in November - December [7]. - Coking coal prices are likely to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend after the holiday [8]. - For non - ferrous metals and new energy products, prices are generally expected to oscillate, and caution is advised during the holiday [9][10][11]. - In the energy and chemical industry, there are various risks during the holiday, and attention should be paid to cost fluctuations and supply - demand changes [12][13]. - For agricultural products, there are uncertainties in the US soybean market, and the post - holiday performance of domestic bean and rapeseed meal and oils may be affected [15]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Domestic Macro: The domestic economic recovery has slowed. Attention should be paid to September PMI data, US tariff policies on electronic chips, and the impact of US economic data and Fed actions on the domestic RMB exchange rate, stock market, and bond market during the National Day holiday [3]. - Overseas Macro: During the National Day holiday, important economic data in the US and Europe will be released, and Fed officials will speak. Attention should be paid to the impact of these on the global and domestic markets, as overseas markets may fluctuate significantly [4]. - Stock Index: The US plan to impose additional tariffs on electronic chips may suppress domestic risk appetite in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the specific US tariff policies, overseas economic data, Fed actions, and RMB exchange rate trends during the National Day holiday and their impact on A - shares [4]. - Gold/Silver: During the National Day holiday, important economic data will be released, and Fed officials will speak. The US tariff policy and geopolitical risks may increase short - term safe - haven demand, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the short - term [5]. Black Metals - Steel: Before the National Day, steel prices declined due to lower - than - expected macro policies and pre - holiday risk - aversion. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is likely to continue to compress profits and oscillate within a range. Attention should be paid to post - holiday price fluctuations and inventory data [6][7]. - Iron Ore: Due to high iron - water production and pre - holiday restocking by steel mills, iron ore prices have been stronger than steel. In the short - term, prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, but may decline in November - December [7]. - Coking Coal: Due to high iron - water production and pre - holiday restocking, coking coal prices were strong in the first half of September and declined at the end of the month. After the holiday, prices are likely to show a slightly stronger oscillatory trend [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The accident at the Grasberg copper mine has affected production, and copper prices have risen. Domestic production is high, but demand is facing challenges. Caution is advised during the holiday [9]. - Aluminum: Due to pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises, the social inventory has decreased. However, supply is rigid, and demand is weakening. Prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range, and caution is advised during the holiday [9]. - Tin: Tin prices are oscillating. Supply is tightening, but the supply is expected to increase in the future. It is recommended to be cautious and wait for opportunities to sell at high prices [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market is slowly destocking, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Jiangxi lithium ore resource ruling [11]. - Industrial Silicon: The supply - demand fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to policy disturbances and cost support after the holiday [11]. - Polysilicon: The supply - demand fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to policy disturbances and price support after the holiday [11]. Energy and Chemical Industry - Crude Oil: There are significant risks during the holiday. OPEC will hold a production decision - making meeting, and geopolitical factors and macro data may affect prices [12]. - Polyester: The downstream operating rate is low, and there is a risk of over - supply. Attention should be paid to possible production cuts and the impact of crude oil price fluctuations [12]. - Methanol: Inventory has started to decline. Attention should be paid to international device changes and inventory during the holiday [12]. - Polyolefins: The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to crude oil price fluctuations [13]. - Urea: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Attention should be paid to export policies and device changes [13]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The harvesting progress is slower than expected, and there are uncertainties in yield. Attention should be paid to the concentrated listing, export, and trade relations during the holiday [15]. - Bean and Rapeseed Meal: The US soybean market will affect domestic bean meal cost expectations. If the US soybean market is stable, domestic bean meal may rebound after the holiday. Rapeseed meal is mainly affected by bean meal [15]. - Oils: There is a shortage of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports. The supply of palm oil is affected by production and export factors, and attention should be paid to international market changes [15].