五矿期货农产品早报-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean meal market is currently in a weak and volatile state. In the short - term, there may be a downward trend due to large domestic supply pressure and no clear positive factors in the cost side. In the medium - term, the overall global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. [2][3][4] - The oil market is in a state of current supply - demand balance or slight looseness but with a tight future expectation. It is expected to be in a medium - term volatile and upward trend, and the strategy is to buy on dips and stabilization. [6][8] - The sugar market is generally bearish in the long - term, but in the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see due to technical factors. [9][10] - The cotton market is influenced by both bearish factors such as weak downstream demand and bullish factors like low domestic inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [13][14] - For eggs, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and focus on buying the far - month contracts after a decline. [16][17] - For pigs, the short - term trend is expected to be weak. The strategy is to short the near - month contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks. [19][20] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Protein Meal Market Information - On Monday, US soybeans fluctuated with low valuation and few positive factors. The domestic soybean meal spot price was stable, with the price in East China at 2,900 yuan/ton. Last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory increased slightly to 1.1892 million tons, and the port soybean inventory increased to 9.385 million tons, expected to peak but remain at a high level. This week, the expected crushing volume is 1.76 million tons. [2] - Argentina has temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans and soybean meal after achieving its export target, which still has a large impact on the international soybean meal market. Brazil's soybean planting progress is relatively fast, reaching 3.2% as of last Thursday, and the premium is temporarily stable. [3] Strategy View - The domestic supply pressure is large, and the cost side has no clear positive factors, which may trigger a short - term downward trend. The cancellation of Argentina's export tax has driven the downward movement of soybean meal. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. Currently, the soybean meal market is in a weak and volatile state. [4] Oil Market Information - From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, but then increased month - on - month in the subsequent periods. The palm oil production decreased month - on - month in the same period. It is expected that Malaysia's palm oil inventory will decline in the coming months and reach about 1.7 million metric tons by the end of the year. [6] - On Monday, the three major domestic oils fluctuated. The recent decline in oils is due to weak palm oil exports from Malaysia and short - term price cuts in Argentina. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level. [6] Strategy View - Factors such as low vegetable oil inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the US biodiesel policy draft boosting soybean oil demand, and the expected decrease in exportable volume of palm oil in Southeast Asia support the oil price center. The oil market is in a state of current balance or slight looseness but with a tight future expectation. It is recommended to buy on dips and stabilization in the medium - term. [8] Sugar Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou sugar was 5,479 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The spot price of sugar in some regions decreased or remained stable. [9] - Consultancy firm StoneX predicts that the sugar cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season may reach 620.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, and the sugar production will reach 42.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. The sugar production in Thailand in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 11.4 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons year - on - year, and that in India is expected to be 32.3 million tons, an increase of 6.2 million tons year - on - year. [9] Strategy View - Affected by factors such as the record - high sugar imports in China in August and the significant year - on - year increase in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in August, the sugar price is generally bearish. However, from a technical perspective, it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day. [9][10] Cotton Market Information - On Monday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to decline. The closing price of the January contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 13,350 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous trading day. The spot price of cotton also decreased. [12] - As of September 26, the operating rates of spinning mills and weaving mills were lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The cotton commercial inventory was lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. As of September 18, the cumulative export contract volume of US cotton in the 2025/26 season decreased year - on - year. [13] Strategy View - Although it is the peak consumption season, the downstream operating rate is weak, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the new season, leading to a downward trend in cotton prices. However, the domestic cotton inventory is at a historical low, which may provide support. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. [14] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, the national egg price was stable or decreased. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas decreased to 3.45 yuan/jin. The supply is stable, and the downstream digestion speed is average. It is expected that the egg price may be stable in some areas and decline in most areas today. [16] Strategy View - The spot price is expected to decline further. The near - month contracts of the futures market are weak, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong. The supply side may improve marginally, and the demand side has many uncertainties. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contracts after a decline. [17] Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price continued to decline. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.09 yuan to 12.58 yuan/kg, and that in Sichuan decreased by 0.28 yuan to 11.79 yuan/kg. At the end of the month, the enthusiasm of farmers to reduce prices weakened, and the pig supply may be stable or decrease. The demand is at a high level and shows no sign of further increase. It is expected that the supply - demand will be relatively balanced today, and the price will stop falling and stabilize. [19] Strategy View - The short - term trend of the pig market is expected to be weak. The strategy is to short the near - month contracts and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being cautious about high - position risks. [20]