宝城期货国债期货早报（2025年9月30日）-20250930

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2512 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The overall view is "oscillation" due to the existence of long - term interest rate cut expectations but a low possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) in the financial futures stock index sector, the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The short - term upward momentum and downward space are both limited, and it is expected to be in low - level oscillation and consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - TL2512: Short - term: oscillation; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation with a weak bias; Overall view: oscillation. Core logic: There are still long - term interest rate cut expectations, but the possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts is low [1]. Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Varieties: TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". - Core Logic: Treasury bond futures oscillated and declined slightly yesterday. The central bank's third - quarter regular meeting signaled flexible monetary policy, reducing the possibility of short - term comprehensive interest rate cuts. However, due to weak economic data in August and the Fed's interest rate cut in September, which reduced RMB exchange - rate pressure, there is a high possibility of loose monetary policy in the future, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. So, in the short term, it is expected to be in low - level oscillation and consolidation [5].