宝城期货动力煤早报（2025年9月30日）-20250930

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The reference view for thermal coal spot is to oscillate. The supply of thermal coal is stable, while the demand is seasonally weakening. The spot price is supported by downstream replenishment demand in the short term, but the upward momentum after the holiday is limited. The coal price is expected to maintain an oscillating trend in October [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Supply Situation - The impact of the previous production capacity verification has eased, and coal mines in the main production areas are operating normally. However, at the end of the month, some coal mines slowed down production after reaching their production targets, resulting in overall stable supply of thermal coal [4] Demand Situation - The demand is in a downward trend during the off - season. Since September, the water inflow in Sichuan and Yunnan has significantly improved, and there have been consecutive all - day negative electricity prices in the Sichuan power spot market due to excess new energy output. Inner Mongolia has also entered the windy season, and the increase in new energy output will suppress the demand for thermal coal [4] Inventory Situation - As of September 25, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.277 billion tons, with a weekly decrease of 2 million tons compared to the previous week, and 158.4 million tons lower than the same period last year [4]