国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend forecasts and trading suggestions for various energy - chemical futures on September 30, 2025, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc. Some products are expected to be weak in the medium - term, while others may show short - term fluctuations or maintain a certain trend [2][11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - PX: The unilateral trend may remain weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread. It is recommended to take profit on PXN positions. The domestic PX operating rate is 86.7% (+0.4%), and the Asian PX operating rate is 78% (-0.2%). Demand pressure is high, and there is limited upward drive [11]. - PTA: The unilateral trend may be weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread. It is advisable to short the PTA processing fee on the 01/05 contracts. PTA inventory is rising, and the polyester operating rate is 90.3% (-1.3%) [12][13]. - MEG: The unilateral trend may be weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread. The ethylene glycol operating rate in the Chinese mainland is 73.08% (down 1.85% from the previous period). The polyester operating rate is 90.3% (-1.3%), and the supply - demand balance sheet is currently strong in the short - term [14]. 3.2 Rubber - Rubber is expected to oscillate. The trend strength is 0. As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.47 million tons from the previous period, with a decline of 1.01% [15][17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is in a weak operation. The trend strength is - 1. The supply of butadiene is high, and the inventory pressure of synthetic rubber is increasing. The decline rate may slow down from a valuation perspective [19][21]. 3.4 Asphalt - Asphalt shows a decline in both factory and warehouse inventories. The trend strength is - 1. From September 23 - 29, 2025, the domestic asphalt weekly output decreased by 30,000 tons, a decline of 4.3%. As of September 29, the factory inventory decreased by 1.1%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.6% [22][33]. 3.5 LLDPE - LLDPE is expected to have a medium - term oscillating market. The trend strength is 0. The cost side strongly supports the PE market. The demand is improving, and the inventory pressure is not significant. The short - term is strong, and the medium - term may oscillate [34][35]. 3.6 PP - PP may be in an oscillating market in the medium - term. The trend strength is 0. The short - term demand has improved, and the cost side has strengthened. The supply - side maintenance has increased, and the market is expected to oscillate before the National Day [38][39]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is suppressed by weak reality but strongly supported by cost. The trend strength is 0. The 32 - alkali spot in Shandong is under pressure, but the 50 - alkali price has increased. The cost support is strong, and the market may oscillate widely [42][43]. 3.8 Pulp - Pulp is expected to oscillate. The trend strength is 0. The futures market led the decline, and the spot market was divided. The port inventory decreased by 3.7% week - on - week, but the absolute inventory was still high, and the demand did not improve [46][49]. 3.9 Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The trend strength is 0. The domestic float glass market price was stable with partial increases, and the downstream提货 volume was limited [51][52]. 3.10 Methanol - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The trend strength is 0. The port inventory decreased by 656,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 4.21%. The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations [54][56]. 3.11 Urea - Urea is expected to oscillate in the short - term with a weakening trend. The trend strength is 0. As of September 24, 2025, the total inventory of urea enterprises increased by 529,000 tons from the previous week, a 4.54% increase. The short - term price may oscillate, and the medium - term trend is weak [59][60]. 3.12 Styrene - It is recommended to take profit on short positions in styrene before the National Day. The trend strength is 0. The industrial chain valuation has declined, and the high - inventory problem is difficult to solve in the short - term [62][63]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The trend strength is 0. The domestic soda ash market is stable, the supply is high, and the downstream demand is average [65][67]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - LPG has strong short - term support, and attention should be paid to cost changes; propylene is expected to be weak in the short - term. The trend strength of both is 0. The PDH operating rate is 69.5%, and there are many domestic device maintenance plans [70][71]. 3.15 PVC - PVC is in a low - level oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The market has strong low - level support, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the medium - term trend still has pressure [77]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil's night - session price rose and then fell, with the price center remaining high; low - sulfur fuel oil is weakening in the short - term, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market has slightly rebounded. The trend strength of both is 0 [80]. 3.17 Container Freight Index (European Line) - Attention should be paid to the price increase announcements and the fermentation of geopolitical events for the container freight index (European line). The trend strength is not mentioned. The freight rates of European and US - West routes have declined, and the market is affected by multiple factors [82].