Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver will experience a volatile adjustment [2][5]. - The decline of the US dollar has pushed up the price of copper [2][10]. - Zinc is expected to have a slight rebound [2][13]. - The decline in lead inventory limits the price decline [2][16]. - Tin will trade within a range [2][19]. - Aluminum will trade within a range, alumina will continue to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel prices will trade at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and stainless - steel prices will fluctuate due to the game between short - term supply - demand and cost [2][25]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to changes in mining licenses and suggest light - position operations before the holiday [2][32]. - The supply - demand of industrial silicon has weakened, and for polysilicon, pay attention to policy expectations [2][35][36]. - Iron ore prices will fluctuate at a high level with repeated expectations [2][39]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices will fluctuate weakly as raw material trends weaken [2][41]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices will fluctuate weakly due to sector sentiment resonance [2][44]. - Coke and coking coal prices will fluctuate widely with repeated expectations [2][47][48]. - Log prices will fluctuate repeatedly [2][50]. - Para - xylene and PTA will remain weak in the medium term, and for MEG, conduct a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage, and pay attention to position management before the holiday [2][54]. - Rubber will trade in a volatile manner, and synthetic rubber will operate weakly [2][31][33]. - Asphalt's factory and warehouse inventories have both declined [2][35]. - LLDPE will have a medium - term volatile market, and PP may be in a volatile market in the medium term [2][37][38]. - Caustic soda is suppressed by weak reality but has strong cost support [2][39]. - Pulp will trade in a volatile manner [2][41]. - The price of glass original sheets is stable [2][43]. - Methanol will trade in a volatile manner in the short term, and urea will fluctuate in the short term with a weakening trend [2][44][46]. - Close short positions in styrene and pure benzene before the National Day [2][48][63]. - The short - term support for LPG is not weak, and pay attention to cost changes; propylene will operate weakly in the short term [2][50]. - PVC will trade at a low level [2][53]. - The price of fuel oil rose at night and then fell back, with the price center remaining high; low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened in the short term, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [2][54]. - For the container shipping index (European line), pay attention to the implementation of price increases and the fermentation of geopolitical events [2][55]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices will fluctuate in the short term with pressure, and suggest light - position operations during the holiday [2][60]. - The short - term rebound height of palm oil is limited, and suggest light - position operations during the holiday; soybean oil's upside space is difficult to open as US soybeans fluctuate weakly [2][64]. - Soybean meal will fluctuate, and avoid risks during the long holiday; soybean No.1 will fluctuate [2][66]. - For corn, pay attention to the listing of new grains [2][68]. - Sugar will have a narrow - range consolidation [2][70]. - Both domestic and overseas cotton futures are weak [2][71]. - Suggest light - position operations in eggs during the holiday [2][73]. - The bottom of the live - hog spot market has not been reached [2][74]. - For peanuts, pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][75]. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: The closing price of SHFE gold 2510 was 863.60 with a daily increase of 1.29%, and the night - session closing price was 870.42 with a night - session increase of 1.02%. The trend intensity is 0 [6][8]. - Silver: The closing price of SHFE silver 2510 was 10912 with a daily increase of 3.07%, and the night - session closing price was 10907.00 with a night - session increase of 0.66%. The trend intensity is 1 [6][8]. Base Metals - Copper: The closing price of SHFE copper's main contract was 82370 with a daily decrease of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 83680 with a night - session increase of 1.59%. The trend intensity is 2 [10][12]. - Zinc: The closing price of SHFE zinc's main contract was 21800 with a daily decrease of 0.82%. The trend intensity is 0 [13][14]. - Lead: The closing price of SHFE lead's main contract was 16855 with a daily decrease of 1.49%. The trend intensity is 0 [16][17]. - Tin: The closing price of SHFE tin's main contract was 272410 with a daily decrease of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 279670 with a night - session increase of 2.62%. The trend intensity is 0 [20][22]. - Aluminum: The closing price of SHFE aluminum's main contract was 20730, down 15 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0. Alumina will continue to be weak (trend intensity: - 1), and cast aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum (trend intensity: 0) [23][24]. - Nickel: The closing price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 121100, down 280 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless - steel's main contract closing price was 12760, down 80 from the previous day, and its trend intensity is also 0 [25][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 73920, up 1040 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0 [32][34]. - Industrial Silicon: The Si2511 contract's closing price was 8610. The supply - demand has weakened, and the trend intensity is - 1 [35][38]. - Polysilicon: The PS2511 contract's closing price was 51280. Pay attention to policy expectations, and the trend intensity is 0 [36][38]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the 12601 contract was 784.0, down 6.0 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 1 [39]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The closing price of RB2601 was 3097, down 42 from the previous day; the closing price of HC2601 was 3289, down 41 from the previous day. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [41][42][43]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Ferrosilicon 2511 closed at 5610, down 50 from the previous day; silicomanganese 2511 closed at 5802, down 26 from the previous day. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [44][45][46]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The closing price of JM2601 was 1154, down 42.5 from the previous day; the closing price of J2601 was 1647, down 45.5 from the previous day. The trend intensities of both are 0 [48][49]. - Log: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 810.5, up 0.2% from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0 [50][51][53]. - Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG: Para - xylene and PTA will remain weak in the medium term. For MEG, conduct a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to position management before the holiday [2][54]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The short - term rebound height is limited, and suggest light - position operations during the holiday [2][64]. - Soybean Oil: US soybeans fluctuate weakly, and the upside space of soybean oil is difficult to open [2][64]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1: Soybean meal will fluctuate, and avoid risks during the long holiday; soybean No.1 will fluctuate [2][66]. - Corn: Pay attention to the listing of new grains [2][68]. - Sugar: It will have a narrow - range consolidation [2][70]. - Cotton: Both domestic and overseas cotton futures are weak [2][71]. - Eggs: Suggest light - position operations during the holiday [2][73]. - Live Hogs: The bottom of the spot market has not been reached [2][74]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][75].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250930
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-30 01:34