能源化工日报-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The macro factors for crude oil are bullish, but there is still a probability of short - term negative news from OPEC. When China faces the issue of holiday positions, it is not considered cost - effective to hold long positions during the holiday. Short - term long positions in crude oil should be closed and wait for OPEC's final statement [2]. - For methanol, the overall fundamentals have improved marginally. With supply expected to increase marginally and demand improving, and inventory being depleted, there may be short - term long opportunities at low prices [5]. - For urea, it is currently in a situation of low valuation and weak drivers. With supply pressure increasing and demand being average, it is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [7]. - For rubber, the medium - term view is bullish. However, it has broken down in the short term and remains weak. It is recommended to wait and look for opportunities after the National Day. Long - position holders during the holiday can consider a hedging strategy [9]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and export expectations are weakening. Although the short - term valuation has declined to a low level, it is recommended to consider short positions on rallies in the medium term [12]. - For styrene, the BZN spread has a large upward repair space. With the approaching seasonal peak season, the price may stop falling when the port inventory is depleted [16]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted. The price may fluctuate upward, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [18]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [21]. - For PX, the current load is high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term overhauls. The PX inventory accumulation cycle may continue, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. - For PTA, the supply has unexpected overhauls, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand side has low inventory and profit pressure, but the terminal is still weak year - on - year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. - For ethylene glycol, the industrial fundamentals show high domestic supply. The port inventory is expected to be low in the short term but will accumulate in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider short positions on rallies, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Information: The main contract of INE crude oil futures closed up 3.50 yuan/barrel, or 0.72%, at 492.60 yuan/barrel. China's weekly crude oil data showed an increase in arrival inventory, gasoline, diesel, and total refined oil commercial inventories [1]. - Strategy View: The macro factors are bullish, but there is a risk of OPEC negative news. Short - term long positions should be closed, and wait for OPEC's statement [2]. Methanol - Market Information: The price in Taicang decreased by 2 yuan, remained flat in Inner Mongolia, and increased by 5 yuan in southern Shandong. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 1 yuan to 2356 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 105. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 3 to - 29 [4]. - Strategy View: Supply is expected to increase marginally, demand has improved, and inventory is being depleted. There may be short - term long opportunities at low prices [5]. Urea - Market Information: The spot price in Shandong and Henan remained stable, with a small number of regions seeing price drops. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 5 yuan to 1669 yuan, with a basis of - 69. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 2 to - 51 [6]. - Strategy View: It is in a situation of low valuation and weak drivers. Supply pressure is increasing, demand is average, and it is recommended to consider long positions at low prices [7]. Rubber - Market Information: The decline of leading varieties such as coking coal has led to a weak rubber market. The market expects a 62,000 - ton state reserve release. The weather in Thailand in the next 7 - 14 days may be favorable. As of September 25, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong increased, while that of semi - steel tires decreased. As of September 21, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased [9]. - Strategy View: The medium - term view is bullish. It has broken down in the short term and remains weak. Wait and look for opportunities after the National Day. Long - position holders during the holiday can consider a hedging strategy [9]. PVC - Market Information: The 01 contract of PVC decreased by 1 yuan to 4896 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4730 (- 10) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 166 (- 9) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 310 (- 6) yuan/ton. The cost of ethylene and calcium carbide decreased, and the overall operating rate increased, while the downstream operating rate decreased. Factory and social inventories increased [11]. - Strategy View: The domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and export expectations are weakening. Although the short - term valuation has declined to a low level, it is recommended to consider short positions on rallies in the medium term [12]. Styrene - Market Information: The cost of pure benzene remained unchanged, the spot price of styrene decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the active contract decreased by 9 yuan/ton. The basis weakened, the BZN spread decreased, and the non - integrated device profit increased. The upstream operating rate decreased, the port inventory increased, and the demand - side operating rate decreased [14][15]. - Strategy View: The BZN spread has a large upward repair space. With the approaching seasonal peak season, the price may stop falling when the port inventory is depleted [16]. Polyethylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract increased by 18 yuan/ton, the spot price decreased, and the basis weakened. The upstream operating rate decreased, the inventory decreased, and the downstream average operating rate increased. The 1 - 5 spread widened [17]. - Strategy View: The long - term contradiction has shifted. The price may fluctuate upward, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market [18]. Polypropylene - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract increased by 3 yuan/ton, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis weakened. The upstream operating rate increased, the production enterprise and trader inventories decreased, and the port inventory increased. The downstream average operating rate increased [20]. - Strategy View: Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. The high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [21]. PX - Market Information: The PX11 contract increased by 14 yuan to 6670 yuan, and the PX CFR increased by 3 dollars to 817 dollars. The basis was 24 yuan (+ 4), and the 11 - 1 spread was 28 yuan (+ 6). The PX load in China increased, while the Asian load decreased. Some devices had overhauls and restarts. The PTA load increased, and the import volume from South Korea decreased. The inventory increased in August [22][23]. - Strategy View: The current PX load is high, the downstream PTA has many unexpected short - term overhauls, and the PX inventory accumulation cycle may continue. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA01 contract increased by 6 yuan to 4652 yuan, the East China spot price remained unchanged, and the basis was - 55 yuan (+ 19). The 1 - 5 spread was - 46 yuan (0). The PTA load increased, and some devices had overhauls and restarts. The downstream load decreased, and the terminal load increased. The social inventory increased, and the spot processing fee decreased while the futures processing fee increased [25]. - Strategy View: The supply has unexpected overhauls, and the de - stocking pattern continues. The demand side has low inventory and profit pressure, but the terminal is still weak year - on - year. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [26]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG01 contract increased by 11 yuan to 4224 yuan, the East China spot price increased by 1 yuan, and the basis was 67 yuan (+ 6). The 1 - 5 spread was - 63 yuan (0). The supply - side load decreased, and some devices had overhauls and load adjustments. The downstream load decreased, and the terminal load increased. The port inventory decreased, and the cost of ethylene decreased [28]. - Strategy View: The industrial fundamentals show high domestic supply. The port inventory is expected to be low in the short term but will accumulate in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider short positions on rallies, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [29].