沥青：开工厂库双回落

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report shows that the asphalt market presents a situation where both factory and warehouse inventories are decreasing. The trend strength of asphalt is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: For BU2511, the yesterday's closing price was 3,466 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.46%, and the night - session closing price was 3,433 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.95%. The trading volume was 152,121 lots, a decrease of 57,958 lots, and the open interest was 132,865 lots, a decrease of 25,763 lots. For BU2512, the yesterday's closing price was 3,418 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.18%, and the night - session closing price was 3,386 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.94%. The trading volume was 54,909 lots, a decrease of 14,617 lots, and the open interest was 91,697 lots, a decrease of 435 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 50,650 lots with no change [1]. - Spread Data: The basis (Shandong - 11) was 34 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 48 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The Shandong - South China spread was - 10 yuan/ton with no change, and the East China - South China spread was 50 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - Spot Market Data: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,500 yuan/ton with no change, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,560 yuan/ton with no change. As of September 29, the refinery operating rate was 40.35%, a decrease of 9.53% compared to September 25, and the refinery inventory rate was 25.89%, a decrease of 1.22% [1]. 3.2 Market Information - Production: In the week of 20250923 - 20250929, the domestic weekly asphalt production was 669,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (4.3%) compared to the previous week and an increase of 203,000 tons (43.6%) year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to September was 24.205 million tons, an increase of 2.914 million tons (13.7%) year - on - year [16]. - Factory Inventory: As of September 29, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample factories was 696,000 tons, a decrease of 1.1% compared to September 25. The factory inventories in different regions showed mixed trends, with the East China region having obvious destocking due to intermittent shutdowns of major refineries and good shipping [16]. - Social Inventory: As of September 29, 2025, the total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.532 million tons, a decrease of 0.6% compared to September 25. The social inventories in different regions also showed mixed trends, with obvious destocking in the East China and Northeast regions. In the East China region, it was due to the support of local rigid demand and the transaction of low - price resources, while in the Northeast region, it was due to the good rigid demand for downstream construction and the price advantage of social warehouses [16].