铅：库存下降，限制价格回落

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The decline in lead inventory restricts the price decline [1] - The new policy - based financial instruments with a total scale of 50 billion yuan are used to supplement project capital and support private enterprises to participate in the "AI +" action [2] - Investors are worried that the government shutdown may delay the release of key economic data, which are crucial for the Fed's decision on the future interest - rate cut path [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Price and Volume: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 16,855 yuan/ton, down 1.49%; the closing price of LME lead 3M electronic disk was 2,001.5 dollars/ton, down 0.37%. The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract was 76,219 lots, an increase of 26,944 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 4,919 lots, a decrease of 1,765 lots. The open interest of SHFE lead main contract was 48,797 lots, a decrease of 11,865 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 163,630 lots, an increase of 1,394 lots [1] - Premium and Discount: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 41 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.5 dollars/ton. PB00 - PB01 was - 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the import premium was 110 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - Import Profit and Loss: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 448.23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56.01 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of SHFE lead continuous third contract was - 461.62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45.45 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory: The SHFE lead futures inventory was 31,946 tons, a decrease of 2,818 tons; the LME lead inventory was 218,825 tons, a decrease of 600 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 21,550 tons, a decrease of 600 tons [1] - Recycled Lead: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was - 143 yuan/ton, a decrease of 98 yuan/ton [1] News - The new policy - based financial instruments with a total scale of 50 billion yuan are used for supplementing project capital and supporting private enterprises to participate in the "AI +" action [2] - Investors worry that the government shutdown may delay the release of key economic data, especially the non - farm payrolls report on Friday, which are crucial for the Fed's decision on the future interest - rate cut path [2] Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral situation [2]