国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250930

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate weakly as raw material trends weaken [2][7][8]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to fluctuate weakly due to sector sentiment resonance [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal are expected to have wide - range fluctuations with repeated expectations [2][14][15]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The futures price of iron ore closed at 784.0 yuan/ton, down 6.0 yuan or 0.76%. The open interest decreased by 34,937 lots. Spot prices of imported and some domestic ores declined slightly. The basis and inter - contract spreads showed certain changes [4]. - Macro and Industry News: From January to August, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises in China was 4692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [4]. - Trend Strength: The trend strength of iron ore is 1 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamentals: The closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3097 yuan/ton and 3289 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan (-1.34%) and 41 yuan (-1.23%) respectively. Open interest and trading volume data are provided, and spot prices in different regions decreased slightly [8]. - Macro and Industry News: Multiple industry data were released, including profit data of large - scale industrial enterprises, steel production, inventory, and import - export data. For example, from January to August, the cumulative export of steel was 7749.0 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0% [9][10]. - Trend Strength: The trend strength of rebar and hot - rolled coil is - 1 [10]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts decreased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia declined. Various spreads such as basis, inter - contract spreads, and cross - product spreads are provided [11]. - Macro and Industry News: Price information of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions and production data in some areas are provided [11]. - Trend Strength: The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is - 1 [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The closing prices of JM2601 and J2601 were 1154 yuan/ton and 1647 yuan/ton, down 42.5 yuan (-3.6%) and 45.5 yuan (-2.7%) respectively. Spot prices of coking coal and coke were mostly stable, and basis and inter - contract spreads changed [15]. - Macro and Industry News: The China Coking Industry Association stated that it has never issued or authorized any notices or initiatives regarding "mandatory production cuts" or "joint price increases" [16]. - Trend Strength: The trend strength of coke and coking coal is 0 [16]. Logs - Fundamentals: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts showed different degrees of change. Spot - futures spreads and inter - contract spreads also changed [18]. - Macro and Industry News: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [20]. - Trend Strength: The trend strength of logs is 0 [20].