国庆长假将至，软商品减仓或空仓过节

Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and international markets. The international sugar price is weakly oscillating above the lowest point in the past four years. The textile market has entered the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", and cotton demand is expected to recover seasonally, with upward price momentum [1][2]. - The overall growth of sugarcane in southern production areas is good, but the sugar beet production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is affected by drought and excessive rainfall respectively, resulting in a delay in the start - up time of sugar mills. Cotton imports are lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is revised downwards. The overall growth of new - season cotton is better than last year [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5780.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5810.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14950.0 yuan [1]. Market - U.S. sugar closed at 16.4, with a change of 0.31%. U.S. cotton closed at 65.4, with a change of - 1.40% [1]. Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by the demand for summer cold drinks, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and international markets [1]. - Cotton: In August, the temperature in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin cotton areas was high and precipitation was low, increasing the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. Currently, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously decreasing, and as the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, there is bottom support for cotton prices [1]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8981.0, with a change of - 5.10%; Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 3173.0, with a change of - 6.59% [1] Data Quick View Outer - Market Quotes - U.S. sugar (in dollars) rose from 16.35 on September 28, 2025, to 16.4 on September 29, 2025, with a change of 0.31%. U.S. cotton (in dollars) fell from 66.33 to 65.4, with a change of - 1.40% [3]. Spot Prices - Nanning sugar spot price remained at 5780.0 yuan, and Kunming sugar spot price remained at 5810.0 yuan. The cotton index 328 fell from 3281 to 3280, with a change of - 0.32%. Xinjiang cotton spot price fell from 15000.0 yuan to 14950.0 yuan, with a change of - 0.33% [3]. Spread Quick View - The spreads of SR01 - 05, SR09 - 01, and sugar 05 and 09 basis points have changed to varying degrees, while the spreads of CF09 - 01 and cotton 01 and 09 basis points remained unchanged [3]. Import Prices - The import price of cotton cotlookA remained at 77.7 on September 28 and 29, 2025 [3]. Profit Margins - The sugar import profit remained at 1484.5 on September 28 and 29, 2025 [3]. Options - The implied volatility of SR601C5500 and SR601P5500 is 0.0859, and the historical volatility of SR601 is 6.48. The implied volatility of CF601C13400 is 0.1195, and the implied volatility of CF601P13400 is 0.1234, with the historical volatility of CF601 being 7.39 [3]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 9464.0 on September 28, 2025, to 8981.0 on September 29, 2025, with a change of - 5.10%. Cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 3397.0 to 3173.0, with a change of - 6.59% [3] Strategy Recommendations - Adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]