Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Bullish on the medium to long - term for stock indices, recommend buying on dips; hold a neutral stance on treasury bonds and maintain a wait - and - see approach [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Adopt a range - trading strategy for coking coal and rebar; recommend buying on dips for glass [1][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Advise cautious trading before holidays for copper; suggest buying on dips after a pullback for aluminum; recommend a wait - and - see approach or shorting on rallies for nickel; adopt a range - trading strategy for tin, gold, and silver [1][11][15] - Energy and Chemicals: Expect PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol to trade sideways; anticipate wide - range fluctuations for polyolefins; recommend an arbitrage strategy of shorting the 01 contract and going long on the 05 contract for soda ash [1][20][22][31] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Expect cotton and cotton yarn to trade sideways; anticipate narrow - range fluctuations for PTA; expect apples to trend slightly upwards and jujubes to trend slightly downwards [1][34][36] - Agricultural and Livestock: Recommend shorting on rallies for pigs and eggs; expect wide - range fluctuations for corn; anticipate range - bound oscillations for soybean meal; expect oils to trend slightly upwards [1][38][45] Core Views - The overall futures market presents a complex situation with different investment strategies recommended for various sectors. Positive factors such as monetary policy easing, industry growth, and technological breakthroughs support the stock index market, while uncertainties in factors like macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade impact other sectors [1][5][11] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - Stock Indices: With the support of positive factors such as moderately loose monetary policy, stable growth in the non - ferrous metals industry, and breakthroughs in the solid - state battery field, the market was active on Monday. The A - share market has been in a sideways trend since September, showing a technology - driven structural market. In the medium term, factors like Fed rate cuts, improved Sino - US relations, and the prosperity of emerging sectors are expected to drive the market upwards. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - Treasury Bonds: Yields rose on Monday, and the curve steepened. The spread between policy - bank bonds and treasury bonds widened. The central bank emphasized policy implementation in the third - quarter meeting minutes, and there is uncertainty about the implementation of incremental monetary policies in the fourth quarter. It is advisable to maintain a wait - and - see approach [5] Black Building Materials - Double - Coking Coal: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a "Golden September" in the coal industry. Coal prices have risen across the board, and the procurement rhythm has accelerated. It is expected to trade sideways [7] - Rebar: On Monday, rebar futures prices were weak. The current valuation is low, and the demand is weak. It is necessary to focus on the demand in October. It is recommended to wait and see or engage in short - term trading before the holiday [7] - Glass: Last week, glass futures first declined and then rose. Spot prices increased, and inventories decreased. The demand for real - estate construction in October provides weak support, and there are positive expectations from domestic macro - news and environmental policies. It is recommended to buy on dips [9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The Grasberg mine accident has led to a long - term increase in the copper price center. In the short term, the price has fallen due to profit - taking, but it is expected to be strong. It is recommended to trade cautiously before the holiday [11][12] - Aluminum: The price of bauxite has declined, and the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is stable. The demand has entered the peak season, and inventories have decreased. It is recommended to buy on dips [11][12] - Nickel: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the supply of refined nickel is in surplus. The price of nickel iron has limited upside, and the demand for stainless steel is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [16] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor and photovoltaic industries are recovering. It is recommended to trade within a range [17] - Gold and Silver: The market's expectation of Fed rate cuts has increased, and precious metals are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade within a range [17][19] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support may decline, and the overall supply - demand situation is still weak. It is expected to trade sideways in the short term [21] - Caustic Soda: The upstream inventory has increased, and the demand from downstream industries has increased. It is expected to trade sideways, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment and export conditions [23] - Styrene: The cost is under pressure, the supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. It is expected to trade weakly within a range [26] - Rubber: The raw material supply is expected to increase, and the market trading is light before the holiday. It is expected to trade sideways [27] - Urea: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory has accumulated. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level and arbitrage opportunities [28] - Methanol: The supply has recovered, the demand from the main downstream industry has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to be supported in the short term [29] - Polyolefins: The supply has increased, the demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to trade within a range, and the LP spread is expected to widen [30] - Soda Ash: The price has been driven up by glass, and the inventory has decreased. The output of Yuanxing's second - phase project is expected to increase, and it is recommended to adopt an arbitrage strategy [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand situation has changed, and the current spot market is firm, but there is pressure on future prices. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [34] - PTA: The conflict in Russia and Ukraine has increased, and the international oil price has risen. The cost and supply - demand relationship are in a game, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [34][35] - Apples: The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and it is expected to trend slightly upwards. Attention should be paid to factors such as terminal market transactions and weather [36] - Jujubes: The growth of jujubes in Xinjiang shows differences, and the market is currently quiet. It is expected to rebound after a decline [36] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The spot price is weak, and the supply is expected to increase in the short and medium terms. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [38][39] - Eggs: The short - term egg price is under pressure, and the long - term supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to factors such as chicken culling and environmental policies [40][41] - Corn: The supply of new crops is expected to ease the tight supply situation of old crops. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish view and pay attention to the listing rhythm of new crops [42][44] - Soybean Meal: The supply is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter, and the price is under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and hold on dips [44][45] - Oils: The negative impact of the Argentine tariff event has ended. The palm oil inventory is expected to slow down its accumulation, and there are supply gaps in domestic rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [47][50]
期货市场交易指引：2025年09月30日-20250930
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-09-30 02:14