中辉期货热卷早报-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Cautiously bearish [1] - Iron Ore: Light long participation [1] - Coke: Cautiously bearish [1] - Coking Coal: Cautiously bearish [1] - Silicon Manganese: Cautiously bearish [1] - Silicon Iron: Cautiously bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and the overall demand for steel is still weak. The supply level is relatively high, and the supply - demand driving force is limited. After the macro - event is realized, the sentiment has cooled down, and the overall market maintains a range - bound operation [1][5] - Iron Ore: The molten iron production increases again, and the inventories of steel mills and ports both increase. The pre - holiday replenishment is nearing the end, and the production enthusiasm of steel enterprises during the holiday is still strong. There is an expectation of a decline in foreign ore shipments, and the fundamentals continuously support the price [1][8] - Coke: Coke has entered the price - increase stage, with obvious game between coke producers and steel mills. The production of coke is relatively stable, and the supply - demand is relatively balanced, following coking coal in a range - bound operation [1][12] - Coking Coal: The domestic coking coal production continues to recover, approaching the level of the same period last year, and the supply has marginally improved. The import volume is at a high level. The demand for raw materials is guaranteed, and the overall market is in a range - bound operation, with possible policy disturbances in the supply side later [1][16] - Silicon Manganese: The cost side strongly supports the price, but the upward driving force is still limited. After the rapid release of the short - term decline sentiment, the market may fluctuate, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1] - Silicon Iron: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, but the high absolute value of warehouse receipts suppresses the upward space of the price. After the short - term rapid decline, the market may fluctuate, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel - Rebar: The apparent demand has improved month - on - month, the output remains flat, and the inventory continues to decrease, but the inventory reduction speed needs further observation. The molten iron production continues to rise, and the overall supply level of steel is high. The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and the real estate and infrastructure sectors still drag down the market [1][4] - Hot - rolled Coil: The apparent demand has little change, the output slightly decreases, and the inventory slightly increases. The overall change is small, and the supply - demand is relatively stable with few contradictions. The molten iron production continues to rise, and the overall demand for steel is still weak, lacking upward driving force [1][4] Iron Ore - Market Situation: The molten iron production increases, the inventories of steel mills and ports both increase, and the pre - holiday replenishment is almost over. The production enthusiasm of steel enterprises during the holiday is strong, and there is an expectation of a decline in foreign ore shipments [1][8] - Operation Suggestion: Lightly participate in long positions [1][9] Coke - Market Situation: Coke has entered the price - increase stage, with obvious game between coke producers and steel mills. The profit of coke enterprises is acceptable, and the production is relatively stable. The output decreases slightly month - on - month, but the inventory increases. The molten iron production continues to rise and remains at a high level, with high demand for raw materials. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, following coking coal [1][12] - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bearish [1][13] Coking Coal - Market Situation: The domestic coking coal production continues to recover, approaching the level of the same period last year, and the supply has marginally improved. The Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is at a high level, and the import volume is running at a high level. The molten iron production slightly increases, and the demand for raw materials is guaranteed. The total inventory continues to increase, and the mine inventory is transferred downstream. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the tight situation has improved. There may be policy disturbances in the supply side later [1][16] - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bearish [1][17] Silicon Manganese - Market Situation: The supply in the production area decreases slightly but the absolute value is still high. After the release of a new round of replenishment demand, the subsequent inventory reduction may become more difficult. The cost side strongly supports the price, but the upward driving force is limited [1][20] - Operation Suggestion: After the rapid release of the short - term decline sentiment, the market may fluctuate, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1][21] Silicon Iron - Market Situation: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the enterprise inventory is slightly reduced, but the high absolute value of warehouse receipts suppresses the upward space of the price [1][20] - Operation Suggestion: After the short - term rapid decline, the market may fluctuate, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1][21]