静待供给端政策明朗

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an "oscillating" rating for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, indicating that the expected price fluctuations for these commodities are within plus or minus one standard deviation in the future 2 - 12 weeks [6][7][10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to the repeated supply expectations, the prices of new energy metals will fluctuate widely. It is necessary to wait for the policy clarity at the end of September. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still in an upward stage, and the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [1] - For industrial silicon, the loosening of coal prices has led to a decline in its price. For polysilicon, the repeated policy expectations have caused its price to continue high - volatility. For lithium carbonate, as the long holiday and the point of long - short game approach, it is necessary to avoid price fluctuation risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Information Analysis: As of September 29, the spot prices of industrial silicon fluctuated. The latest domestic inventory increased by 0.5% month - on - month. As of August 2025, the domestic monthly production of industrial silicon was 386,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%. In August, the export volume of industrial silicon increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in August decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [6] - Main Logic: The repeated coal prices affect the cost support of industrial silicon, and the resumption progress of large northwest factories has slowed down, so the silicon price continues to oscillate. The supply has been rising from August to September, but the resumption process has slowed down recently. The demand has slightly improved, and the inventory has remained stable [6] - Outlook: Before the holiday, the loosening of coal prices led to a decline in silicon prices. Recently, the resumption rhythm of large factories has slowed down, and the industrial silicon price shows short - term oscillation. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to the impact of the resumption rhythm of large northwest factories on supply [6] 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Information Analysis: As of a certain time, the N - type polysilicon re - feeding material transaction price was in the range of 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts increased. In August, the export and import volumes of polysilicon decreased. From January to August 2025, the domestic new photovoltaic installed capacity increased year - on - year. Relevant policies on anti - involution and energy consumption standards were put forward [7] - Main Logic: The supply of polysilicon has recovered to over 130,000 tons in August and is expected to remain high in September. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - involution policies will limit the supply. The demand for polysilicon may continue to weaken in the future. Overall, there is still pressure on the supply - demand situation, and the price fluctuation has increased [8][9] - Outlook: The anti - involution policy has a significant boost to the polysilicon price. It is necessary to pay attention to the policy implementation. If the policy expectation fades, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [7] 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - Information Analysis: On September 29, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.43% compared with the previous day, and the total position increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. A new lithium project was put into production [9][10] - Main Logic: The current market has strong supply and demand. There is a supply - demand gap, but the amplitude is less than expected. The supply has new investments, and there is uncertainty in supply. The apparent demand is strong, and the social inventory is decreasing, but the amplitude is less than expected. The warehouse receipts are gradually recovering, suppressing the price. It is recommended to close positions and wait and see [10] - Outlook: The short - term supply - demand shows a tight balance, and the long - term surplus and supply recovery expectations suppress the price. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [10] 3.2行情监测 - The report only lists the headings for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate under this section, but no specific content is provided [12][18][29] 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On September 29, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all decreased, with decreases of 0.13%, 0.08%, and 0.50% respectively. The new energy commodity index decreased by 0.53% on that day, 0.22% in the past 5 days, 0.96% in the past month, and 3.50% since the beginning of the year [52][54]