碳酸锂日评：低位震荡-20250930

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - On September 29, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures opened low and moved high. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis changed from premium to discount. Currently, both supply and demand are strong, with little inventory pressure upstream. The expectation of lithium ore supply contraction has weakened, downstream inventory has peaked, and the demand peak may be approaching. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate at a low level. The report suggests a wait - and - see approach [1]. Summary by Relevant Information Futures Market - Prices: On September 29, the closing prices of the near - month contract, consecutive first - month contract, consecutive second - month contract, and consecutive third - month contract of lithium carbonate futures were 73,760 yuan/ton, 73,920 yuan/ton, 73,900 yuan/ton, and 73,900 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1,080 yuan/ton, 1,040 yuan/ton, 1,080 yuan/ton, and 1,080 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume was 465,591 lots (-15,429), and the open interest was 251,749 lots (+3,109) [1]. - Inventory: The registered warehouse inventory was 41,119 tons (+790) [1]. - Spreads: The spread between the near - month and consecutive first - month contracts was - 160 yuan/ton (+40), the spread between the consecutive first - and second - month contracts was 20 yuan/ton (-40), and the spread between the consecutive second - and third - month contracts was 0 yuan/ton (0). The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 370 yuan/ton (-1,090) [1]. Spot Market - Lithium Ore: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 858 US dollars/ton (+1), the average prices of different grades of lithium mica remained unchanged, and the average prices of different grades of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained unchanged [1]. - Lithium Compounds: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 73,550 yuan/ton (-50), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) was 71,300 yuan/ton (-50), and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% domestic, different types) decreased by 150 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95% domestic) increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 60,250 yuan/ton [1]. - Battery Materials: The average prices of various ternary precursors and materials increased, the average prices of different types of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 10 yuan/ton, the average price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/ domestic) increased by 16,000 yuan/ton to 276,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of electrolytic cobalt (≥99.8%/metal, ingot) increased by 13,500 yuan/ton to 323,500 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased, and Core Lithium terminated its off - take agreement with Ganfeng Lithium, which will release the full production capacity of its Finniss lithium project [1]. - Demand: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In September, the production schedules of cobalt acid lithium and lithium manganate increased. The production of power batteries was basically flat last week. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1]. Inventory - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 136,825 tons, with smelters and other sectors reducing inventory and downstream sectors accumulating inventory [1].