中辉期货品种策略日报-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: US soybean harvest has started, and the short - term supply in China is sufficient. Before the holiday, the fundamentals are bearish, and caution is needed when going long. Due to the Sino - US trade tariff issue, the continuous downward space is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the US soybean quarterly inventory data at the end of September, US biodiesel policy, and Sino - US trade progress during the harvest season [1][3]. - Rapeseed Meal: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended to view it as a range - bound market. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed shows that Sino - Canadian trade negotiations still take time. Its trend currently follows that of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade progress [1][5]. - Palm Oil: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policy drag down palm oil adjustment. The market expects Malaysian palm oil to continue to accumulate inventory in September, which may suppress its performance before the double festivals. It is expected to be in a short - term weak and volatile market. Attention should be paid to Malaysian palm oil exports in September and the performance of the US soybean oil market [1][7]. - Soybean Oil: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policy and the approaching US soybean harvest may put pressure on the soybean oil market. After the domestic double - festival spot inventory replenishment ends, it has recently followed the palm oil market. Attention should be paid to US biodiesel trends and the follow - up progress of Sino - US trade [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The Sino - Canadian trade dispute and the domestic rapeseed oil de - stocking cycle support the rapeseed oil price to maintain a high - level and strong - side oscillation. However, the gradual development of Sino - Australian trade restricts its continuous upward performance. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - Canadian negotiations and the follow - up trends of US biodiesel policy [1]. - Cotton: The increasing supply from the US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries, along with the weak export demand and the high level of unpriced long positions, are expected to keep the cotton market under pressure. Domestically, the new cotton harvest has started, and the opening price is not strongly supported. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is not ideal, and the foreign trade is affected by trade policies and exchange rates. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term [1][9][11]. - Red Dates: Based on the current production expectations and carry - over inventory, there is still pressure after the new dates are launched. In the short term, the weather window is shrinking, and the market's concern about quality issues is gradually alleviating, but there may be large fluctuations before November. It is recommended to short on rallies during market speculation [1][13]. - Hogs: The spot market is under pressure from both the supply side and the feed price adjustment. In the short and medium term, the supply pressure is obvious, and the spot price continues to decline. With the improvement of the inventory structure, pay attention to whether the spread between standard and fat hogs can widen during the peak season to drive the market up. In the far - month, there is no clear positive news in capacity regulation. It is recommended to short - allocate the November contract and maintain the inter - month reverse spread strategy, considering the 07 and future 09 contracts for the long side of the reverse spread [1][16]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract is 2937 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3014.29 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 160.6813 yuan/ton, down 14.88 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory Data: As of September 19, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 898.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 70.30 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 694.66 million tons, a decrease of 38.54 million tons, or 5.26%. The soybean meal inventory is 125 million tons, an increase of 8.56 million tons, or 7.35% [3]. Rapeseed Meal - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract is 2405 yuan/ton, down 1.60% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2581.05 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit is - 228.7825 yuan/ton, down 22.41 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory Data: As of September 19, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 4.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. Palm Oil - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract is 9234 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous day. The national average price is 9295 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import cost is 9382 yuan/ton, unchanged [6]. - Inventory Data: As of September 19, 2025, the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory is 58.51 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.64 million tons, or 8.79% [7]. Cotton - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract CF2601 is 13350 yuan/ton, down 0.41% from the previous day. The domestic spot price is 15059 yuan/ton, down 0.50%. The ICE cotton main contract is 65.19 cents/pound, up 0.08% [8][9]. - Supply and Demand: Internationally, the supply pressure is increasing as the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries enter the harvest season. Domestically, the new cotton processing is about 22%, the harvest in the northern Xinjiang is slightly delayed, and the demand is weak [9][10]. Red Dates - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract CJ2601 is 10915 yuan/ton, down 2.33% from the previous day [12]. - Supply and Demand: The main production areas are in the coloring and sugaring stage. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 62 million tons, and the demand in the sales area is weak [13]. Hogs - Price Information: The futures price of the main contract Lh2511 is 12295 yuan/ton, down 2.61% from the previous day. The spot price is 12750 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [14][15]. - Supply and Demand: In the short and medium term, the supply pressure is large, and the demand is gradually improving. In the long term, the sow inventory is decreasing [15][16].