中辉有色观点-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Silver: ★★ (Holding positions over the holiday) [1] - Copper: ★★ (Long - term holding) [1] - Zinc: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Lead: ★ (Weak) [1] - Tin: ★★ (Strong) [1] - Aluminum: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Nickel: ★ (Rebound under pressure) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★ (Rebound) [1] - Polysilicon: ★ (Cautiously bullish) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★ (Wide - range oscillation) [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The risks such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US government shutdown, along with the dovish statements of Fed officials, support the long - term investment value of gold and silver. The long - term bullish logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, but short - term risks need to be noted [1][3][4]. - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply contraction expectations and strategic resource attributes. It is recommended to take different strategies for short - term and long - term investments [1][6][7]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the long - term. It is advisable to be cautious during the holiday and maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [1][10][11]. - The lead market is currently in a short - term weak trend due to factors such as the resumption of production of lead enterprises and weak downstream demand [1]. - The tin market has a strong upward trend due to supply disruptions and supported terminal consumption [1]. - The aluminum market faces challenges such as reduced overseas bauxite arrivals and unsmooth destocking, resulting in a rebound under pressure [1][14]. - The nickel market has a situation of over - supply in refined nickel and uncertain downstream consumption of stainless steel, so it is recommended to wait and see [1][18][19]. - The industrial silicon market has a situation of reduced supply and increased downstream stocking, with short - term cost support and high inventory coexisting [1]. - The polysilicon market has production uncertainties in October, but strong policy expectations support the price [1]. - The lithium carbonate market has increasing production and continuous destocking. It is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to the support of the 60 - day moving average [1][22][23]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Conditions: Gold and silver have reached new highs, supported by risk events such as the US government shutdown and the Russia - Ukraine conflict [2][3]. - Logic: In the long - term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern. Silver follows the trend of gold and is also supported by other metal sentiments and strong demand [3][1]. - Strategy: Long - term multi - orders can be held over the holiday, and short - term multi - orders should be held lightly. Pay attention to short - term sentiment fluctuations if the US fiscal bill is resolved [4]. Copper - Market Conditions: Shanghai copper has reached a new high this year, with an increase in the closing price of the main contract and changes in various indicators such as inventory and price differentials [5][6]. - Logic: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the supply contraction expectation of the copper smelting industry is increasing. High copper prices suppress demand, and the domestic social inventory has increased [6][7]. - Strategy: Short - term speculative multi - orders are recommended to take profit and prepare for empty or light positions during the holiday. Long - term strategic multi - orders can be held, and industrial selling hedging should be actively arranged [7]. Zinc - Market Conditions: Shanghai zinc has stopped falling and rebounded, with changes in price, trading volume, inventory, and other indicators [9][10]. - Logic: The supply of zinc concentrates is relatively loose in 2025. Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has decreased, and the risk of soft squeezing in LME zinc continues. However, in the long - term, supply will increase and demand will decrease [10][11]. - Strategy: It is recommended to be empty or hold light positions during the holiday. In the long - term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [11]. Aluminum - Market Conditions: Aluminum prices have rebounded under pressure, and alumina has shown a relatively weak trend [13]. - Logic: Overseas bauxite arrivals are expected to decrease, domestic aluminum ingot destocking is not smooth, and downstream processing industry start - up rates have slightly increased [14]. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the changes in the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises [15]. Nickel - Market Conditions: Nickel prices have rebounded, and stainless steel has slightly recovered [17]. - Logic: The impact of the political situation in Indonesia on nickel ore supply is limited. The supply of refined nickel is in excess, and the downstream consumption of stainless steel is uncertain [18]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Conditions: The main contract LC2511 opened low and went high, with the late - session gains narrowing [21]. - Logic: Supply has not significantly contracted, demand has released positive signals, and the total inventory has been decreasing for 7 consecutive weeks [22]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average in the range of [73500 - 75000] [23].