商品期货早班车-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It provides market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each commodity, suggesting different approaches such as buying, selling, or holding based on the specific market conditions of each commodity [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - Gold: International gold prices rose 0.28% in London, while domestic gold also had slight increases. With geopolitical tensions and Fed rate - cuts, there is a risk of price peaks. It is recommended to partially close long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options before the holiday [1]. - Silver: It followed gold to reach new highs. Similar to gold, it is advised to partially take profits before the holiday [1]. Base Metals - Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum market has increasing supply and rising demand. The price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Alumina has an oversupply situation, and it is advised to wait and observe [2]. - Zinc: Supply pressure persists, and the consumption end is in the off - season. It is recommended to sell on rallies [2][3]. - Lead: Supply is slowly recovering, and consumption is weak. It is recommended to sell on rallies [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The pre - holiday fundamentals are stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. It is advised to wait and observe [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: Due to high demand, the price is supported. It is expected to fluctuate before the lithium mine in Jiangxi is put into production, and it is advisable to arrange a call option strategy before the holiday [3]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The market is in a weak and volatile state, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 49,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the 11 - 12 spread [3][4]. Black Industry - Rebar: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited, with obvious structural differentiation. It is recommended to wait and observe, and aggressive investors can try to short the 2601 contract [4]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand is neutral - strong, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and observe and hold the long - iron - ore - short - coking - coal - and - coke ratio position [4]. - Coking Coal: The futures valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and observe, and aggressive investors can try to short the 2601 contract. Hold the long - iron - ore - short - coking - coal - and - coke ratio position [4]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The global soybean market has high inventory expectations. The US soybean is weak and in a range - bound state, while the domestic market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [5][7]. - Corn: With new grain approaching and expected production increase, the spot price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is expected to decline [7]. - Cotton: It is recommended to wait and observe, with a trading strategy in the range of 13,200 - 13,700 yuan/ton [7]. - Palm Oil: The near - term inventory is increasing, and the long - term has a seasonal production - reduction expectation. It is recommended to use a reverse - spread strategy [7]. - Eggs: With weakening demand and sufficient supply, the egg price is expected to decline [7]. - Pork: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak, but policy factors may have a positive impact on market sentiment [7]. Energy Chemicals - PVC: Supply is increasing while demand is weak. It is recommended to short [8][9]. - PTA: PX short - term supply - demand is weak, and PTA has long - term supply pressure. It is recommended to short the processing fee of the far - month contract on rallies [9]. - Glass: The price has rebounded due to expectations, and it is recommended to go long [9]. - MEG: The supply - demand is balanced and loose. It is recommended to close short positions [9]. - Crude Oil: Supply is strong, and demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies, focusing on shorting opportunities near 500 yuan/ton for the SC main contract [9]. - Soda Ash: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved. It is recommended to wait and observe [10]. - Caustic Soda: The main downstream has unexpectedly lowered the purchase price. It is recommended to wait and observe [10].