格林大华期货早盘提示：尿素-20250930

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating weakly" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic urea start - up has rebounded this week. Agriculture is still in the off - season, and industrial demand is rising slowly. Upstream factories continue to accumulate inventory, and there is still pressure on upstream orders before the holiday. The short - term urea price will oscillate at a low level, with a reference range of 1620 - 1720 yuan/ton. Traders should hold a light position or be out of the market approaching the holiday [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Review - On Monday, the price of the main urea contract 2601 dropped by 9 yuan to 1664 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China's mainstream area remained stable at 1610 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 8102 lots to 191,900 lots, and short positions decreased by 7699 lots to 234,900 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 199,400 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from the previous working day. The current operating rate is 85.2%, an increase of 0.08% compared to 85.13% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.2182 million tons, an increase of 52,900 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 4.54%. The inventory of the urea port sample is 496,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 35.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%, and the operating rate of melamine is 56.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% [1] - Policy: The fourth batch of quotas in China is expected to be mainly distributed to production enterprises, especially those using natural gas as raw materials, similar to the second - batch quota recipients. The total quantity is estimated to be 500,000 - 600,000 tons, with a low proportion for trading enterprises. The specific distribution time is expected to be around the National Day [1] - Economy: The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, an upward adjustment of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast in June this year; the global economic growth rate in 2026 will slow down to 2.9%, the same as the June forecast [1] Market Logic - The short - term urea price will oscillate at a low level due to the increase in domestic urea start - up, off - season agriculture, slow - rising industrial demand, and inventory accumulation in upstream factories [1] Trading Strategy - Traders should hold a light position or be out of the market approaching the holiday [1]