金属期权策略早报：金属期权-20250930

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Metal Options Strategy Morning Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Views - For non - ferrous metals in range - bound oscillations, construct a neutral volatility strategy for option sellers [2] - For the black metals sector with large - amplitude fluctuations, build a short - volatility portfolio strategy [2] - For precious metals with upward breakouts, construct a spot hedging strategy [2] Group 3: Futures Market Overview - For copper (CU2511), the latest price is 83,680, up 1,610 or 1.96%, with a trading volume of 13.85 million lots (down 3.62 million) and open interest of 21.38 million lots (down 1.53 million) [3] - For aluminum (AL2511), the latest price is 20,770, up 65 or 0.31%, trading volume 13.29 million lots (up 1.77 million), and open interest 20.39 million lots (down 0.89 million) [3] - Similar data are provided for other metals including zinc, lead, nickel, etc. [3] Group 4: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - For copper options, the volume PCR is 0.27 (up 0.01), and the open - interest PCR is 0.73 (up 0.02) [4] - For aluminum options, the volume PCR is 0.63 (up 0.01), and the open - interest PCR is 0.90 (up 0.05) [4] - Other metals' PCR data are also presented [4] Group 5: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - For copper options, the pressure point is 92,000, and the support point is 82,000 [5] - For aluminum options, the pressure point is 20,800, and the support point is 19,900 [5] - Pressure and support levels for other metals are also given [5] Group 6: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - For copper options, the at - the - money implied volatility is 20.75%, the weighted implied volatility is 27.04% (down 0.59%), and the difference between implied and historical volatility is 6.29% [6] - For aluminum options, the at - the - money implied volatility is 12.19%, the weighted implied volatility is 14.40% (up 0.16%), and the difference is 1.63% [6] - Implied volatility data for other metals are also provided [6] Group 7: Option Strategies for Non - Ferrous Metals Copper Options - Fundamental analysis: Total inventories in three major exchanges decreased by 0.6 million tons. SHFE inventories decreased by 0.7 to 9.9 million tons, LME inventories decreased by 0.3 to 14.4 million tons, and COMEX inventories increased by 0.4 to 29.1 million tons [7] - Market analysis: Shanghai copper showed a bullish high - level consolidation trend [7] - Option factor analysis: Implied volatility is above the historical average, open - interest PCR is around 0.70, pressure point is 92,000, and support point is 80,000 [7] - Strategy suggestions: Construct a bull - spread strategy for call options and a short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [7] Other Non - Ferrous Metals - Strategies for aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, and lithium carbonate options are also provided, including fundamental analysis, market analysis, option factor analysis, and strategy suggestions [9][10][11] Group 8: Option Strategies for Precious Metals Gold Options - Fundamental analysis: Holdings of major gold ETFs increased by 3.79% this month, and total open interest of Shanghai gold and COMEX gold increased [12] - Market analysis: Shanghai gold continued its bullish trend, reaching a new high [12] - Option factor analysis: Implied volatility is around the historical average, open - interest PCR is below 0.80, pressure point is 888, and support point is 800 [12] - Strategy suggestions: Construct a bull - spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [12] Silver Options - Strategies for silver options are also provided, including fundamental analysis, market analysis, option factor analysis, and strategy suggestions [12] Group 9: Option Strategies for Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore Options - Strategies for rebar, iron ore, ferroalloys, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and glass options are provided, including fundamental analysis, market analysis, option factor analysis, and strategy suggestions [13][14][15]