格林大华期货早盘提示：玉米-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Low long [1] - Pig: Range trading [2] - Egg: High short [2] 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, the spot may remain weak due to new grain listing. In the medium - term, conduct band trading around new - season corn drivers. In the long - term, maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost [1]. - Pig: In the short - term, supply exceeds demand, pressuring the pig price. In the medium - term, the expected increase in supply restricts price hikes. In the long - term, the pig production capacity will continue to materialize this year, and supply pressure may ease next year [2]. - Egg: In the medium - and short - term, the approaching holiday leads to weakening egg prices. In the long - term, pay attention to the scale of culling hens, and the supply pressure may re - emerge in Q4 [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Corn Market Review - The corn futures fluctuated weakly last night. As of the night - session close, the LH2511 contract dropped 0.92% to 2151 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises continued to decline. The average purchase price in Northeast China was 2128 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day; in North China, it was 2322 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [1]. - The prices at north - south ports were stable. The purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2230 - 2240 yuan/ton, and the transaction price at Shekou Port was 2390 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day [1]. - On September 29, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 265 to 21549 [1]. - The wheat - corn price difference turned positive and continued to widen. As of September 29, the difference in Shandong was +110 yuan/ton, 30 yuan/ton wider than the previous day [1]. Market Logic - Short - term: New grain is gradually listed, and the opening price in Northeast China has declined. The spot may remain weak. The lower support for the futures price is the planting cost of new - season corn, around 2050 - 2150 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure is the wheat - corn price difference [1]. - Medium - term: Conduct band trading around new - season corn drivers, and pay attention to factors like the opening price, farmers' selling sentiment, and downstream inventory - building [1]. - Long - term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost, and focus on policy guidance [1]. Trading Strategy - Adopt an interval trading strategy in the medium - and long - term. Recently, pay attention to low - long opportunities. The support for the 2511 contract is 2100 - 2130, and for the 2601 contract is 2100 - 2120. Hold long positions lightly. Control positions during the holiday [1]. Pig Market Review - The pig futures continued to decline. The LH2511 contract dropped 2.61% to 12295 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - On September 29, the national average pig price was 12.17 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day. It is expected that the morning pig price will be stable today [2]. - In August 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40380000, a 0.1% month - on - month decrease. The supply of pigs in the second half of the year is expected to increase [2]. - On September 29, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was 0.2 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - On September 25, the average weekly slaughter weight of pigs was 124.54 kg, a decrease of 0.14 kg from the previous week [2]. - On September 29, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts decreased by 298 to 0 [2]. - The central government will conduct a 15000 - ton rotation purchase of frozen pork on October 10 [2]. Market Logic - Short - term: The current supply exceeds demand, pressuring the pig price [2]. - Medium - term: The increase in the number of new - born piglets from February to June implies an increase in supply in the second half of the year, restricting price hikes [2]. - Long - term: The number of fertile sows is still above the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased. The pig production capacity will continue to materialize this year. The decrease in sow inventory from July to August may ease the supply pressure next year [2]. Trading Strategy - The policy of reducing sow inventory only affects the supply after the second half of next year. For near - month contracts, focus on the supply - demand logic. Consider gradually closing out short positions. For far - month contracts, trade the expected difference in sow inventory reduction and pay attention to actual changes [2]. - The support levels for the 2511, 2601, 2603, 2605, and 2607 contracts are 12000, 12500, 12200, 12600, and 13000 respectively. Control positions during the holiday [2]. Egg Market Review - The egg futures showed a pattern of near - month weakness and far - month strength. The JD2511 contract dropped 1.15% to 3016 yuan/500kg [2]. Important Information - The egg price continued to decline. On September 29, the average price in the main producing areas was 3.45 yuan/jin, and in the main selling areas was 3.81 yuan/jin, both lower than the previous day [2]. - The inventory level was basically stable. The average production - link inventory was 1.13 days, unchanged, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.24 days, an increase of 0.01 days [2]. - The average price of old hens on September 29 was 4.43 yuan/jin, unchanged. As of September 25, the average culling age was 498 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [2]. - In August, the number of laying hens was about 1.365 billion, a 0.66% month - on - month and 5.98% year - on - year increase. The estimated number in September is 1.353 billion, a 0.8% month - on - month decrease [2]. Market Logic - Medium - and short - term: With the approaching holiday, the downstream sales have slowed down, and the inventory has increased, pressuring the egg price [2]. - Long - term: Pay attention to the scale of culling hens. The current positive breeding profit and lower - than - expected culling may lead to increased supply pressure in Q4 [2]. Trading Strategy - Maintain a high - short strategy before large - scale culling. Hold short positions. The pressure levels for the 2511, 2512, 2601, and 2602 contracts are 3050 - 3060, 3190 - 3200, 3360 - 3370, and 3100 - 3110 respectively [2]. - Breeding enterprises can consider selling - hedging opportunities for the 2607 and 2608 contracts to lock in profits [2].