聚烯烃产业四季报：供需结构逐步转弱，关注逢高做空机会

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report PE (Polyethylene) - Cost side support is unstable, production profit shows mixed trends, supply is expected to increase, import may recover but less than previous years, inventory follows seasonal patterns with a slight de - stocking expected at the end of the year, and demand is in a weak recovery with concerns about future orders. The overall fundamentals are under pressure, especially in December. It is recommended to consider short - selling opportunities on rallies, with the main contract expected to trade between 7000 - 7400 yuan/ton. For inter - month arbitrage, pay attention to the L01 - 05 spread for reverse arbitrage opportunities [3]. PP (Polypropylene) - Cost side support fluctuates, production profit is generally below zero, supply will remain abundant in the fourth quarter due to new capacity and restarted devices, import may increase seasonally but less than before, export is expected to be stable, and demand is weak with limited upward drive. The overall supply - demand structure is loose, especially in December. It is advised to short - sell on rallies, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 6800 - 7200 yuan/ton. Also, focus on the 01 - 05 contract spread for reverse arbitrage opportunities [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In July, new capacity and restarted devices increased supply pressure, but oil price rebound and policy support boosted polyolefin prices. In August, oil price was weak, and supply and demand were in a state of "supply - strong, demand - weak". In September, cost support weakened, and the supply - demand contradiction was prominent, leading to a continuous decline in polyolefin futures prices. Taking LLDPE as an example, its price first rose slightly and then fell continuously in the third quarter, with a high of 7412 yuan/ton and a low of 7301 yuan/ton [10][12]. 3.2 PE: Weak Demand Support in Peak Season, Rising Future Supply Pressure Supply Side - Maintenance: The maintenance loss is expected to decrease seasonally in the fourth quarter. As of September 26, the current maintenance loss was 11.37 tons, and the total maintenance - related capacity in the fourth quarter is 258 tons, mainly concentrated in November and December [21][26]. - New Capacity: There will be 240 tons of new PE capacity in the fourth quarter, mainly oil - based devices [29]. - Operation Rate: The capacity utilization rate is expected to rise seasonally in the fourth quarter. As of September 26, it was 81.84%, up 4.6% from the end of the previous quarter [34]. - Output: Output is expected to continue to increase in the fourth quarter but with a seasonally narrowing growth rate. In August, it reached 282.72 tons/month, a 17% increase from the same period last year [39]. - Import Profit and Volume: The average import profit in the third quarter showed a quarter - on - quarter recovery. In August, the import volume decreased, and it is expected to recover in the fourth quarter but be less than previous years [43][48]. - Production Profit: LDPE and HDPE production profits recovered, while LLDPE production profit declined overall [53]. - Inventory: In the third quarter, inventory followed seasonal patterns. In the fourth quarter, it is expected to first rise and then fall, with low pressure on social inventory accumulation and a slight de - stocking expected at the end of the year [57]. Demand Side - Downstream Product Operation Rate: In the seasonal peak season, the operation rates of agricultural film and packaging film gradually recovered but were weaker than in previous years. The operation rates of hollow and drawing products also recovered quarter - on - quarter but were significantly lower year - on - year [61][65]. - Downstream Product Orders: Orders increased quarter - on - quarter but were still inferior to previous years [69]. - Downstream Product Inventory: With the arrival of the peak season, the raw material inventory of downstream products increased quarter - on - quarter but was significantly lower year - on - year [73]. 3.3 PP: Continuous Supply Pressure, Insufficient Demand Drive Supply Side - Operation Rate: It is expected to first rise and then fall in the fourth quarter. As of September 26, the overall operation rate was 75.52%, down 3.78% from the end of the previous quarter [79]. - Maintenance: The maintenance plan in the fourth quarter is less than in the third quarter. The estimated maintenance loss in the third quarter was 209 tons, and it is expected to decrease in the fourth quarter [87]. - Capacity: There will be 295 tons of new PP capacity in the fourth quarter, mainly in December [89]. - Output: Output is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter due to new capacity and restarted devices [93]. - Import: Import profit decreased quarter - on - quarter, and the import volume in August decreased. It is expected to recover in the fourth quarter [97]. - Export: The export volume is at a high level in recent years and is expected to be stable in the fourth quarter [101]. - Production Profit: Production profits varied, with an overall fluctuation below zero [105]. - Inventory: Trader inventory may steadily decrease, producer inventory is not expected to accumulate significantly, and port inventory may slightly increase [109]. Demand Side - Downstream Product Operation Rate: The operation rate first decreased and then increased in the third quarter, similar to the second quarter, but most were lower than in previous years. It is expected to have little improvement in the fourth quarter [113]. - Downstream Product Orders: Orders are expected to first increase and then decrease in the fourth quarter [117]. - Downstream Product Inventory: The pressure on raw material and finished - product inventory is not high currently, but there is an expectation of accumulation in the fourth quarter [119]. - Downstream End - User Situation: The production of three major white - goods showed different trends in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, air - conditioner production may increase, while refrigerator and washing - machine production may first rise and then fall, with limited production increase due to high inventory [124][128]. 3.4 Spread Structure and Warehouse Receipt Quantity - Inter - month Spread: The L01 - 05 spread is expected to first rise and then fall, the PP01 - 05 spread is expected to weaken, and the L - PP spread is expected to fluctuate [133][135]. - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: The warehouse receipt quantities of PE and PP have continuously climbed to high levels in recent years [138]. 3.5 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - PE: The supply - demand difference is expected to be relatively balanced from October to November, but the supply pressure will significantly increase in December [146]. - PP: The overall supply - demand structure in the fourth quarter is loose, with the most prominent supply pressure in December [147].