甲醇日评：假期注意持仓风险-20250930

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The report suggests paying attention to low - buying opportunities for methanol. Although the short - term upward drive is limited due to high port inventory and insufficient restocking power of MTO enterprises, considering the low spot price in East China, the approaching traditional downstream peak season, and the possible gas - restriction expectation in Iran, the port inventory pressure may decrease in the future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices): MA01 increased from 2355.00 yuan/ton to 2359.00 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; MA05 rose from 2384.00 yuan/ton to 2388.00 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; MA09 increased from 2343.00 yuan/ton to 2345.00 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [1]. - Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Average): Prices in Shandong, Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged; prices in Taicang decreased by 0.33% to 2250.00 yuan/ton, in Guangdong dropped by 0.22% to 2260.00 yuan/ton, and in Shaanxi increased by 1.20% to 2105.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased by 11.50 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Raw Material Prices - Coal Spot Prices: The price of Bohai Rim Q5500 decreased by 0.95% to 520.00 yuan/ton, Datong Q5500 dropped by 0.85% to 582.50 yuan/ton, and Yulin Q6000 decreased by 2.07% to 592.50 yuan/ton [1]. - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. 3. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profit: Coal - based methanol profit increased by 1.92% to 334.80 yuan/ton, while natural - gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 422.00 yuan/ton [1]. - MTO Profit: Northwest MTO profit decreased by 43.56% to - 58.00 yuan/ton, and East China MTO profit increased by 0.08% to - 622.57 yuan/ton [1]. - Methanol Downstream Profit: Acetic acid profit increased by 3.29% to 566.17 yuan/ton, MTBE profit increased by 16.69% to 444.64 yuan/ton, and profits of formaldehyde and DME remained unchanged [1]. 4. Information - Domestic Futures Information: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2360 yuan/ton, closing at 2359 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 426,001 lots, and open interest was 869,500, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - Foreign Information: A 1.75 - million - ton methanol plant in Southeast Asia is restarting after a short - term shutdown and maintenance [1].