综合晨报-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various commodities having different trends. Some commodities are facing supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by geopolitical factors, seasonal changes, and policy expectations. Investors need to pay attention to different influencing factors for each commodity and adjust their investment strategies accordingly, especially during the National Day holiday to control risks [2][3][44] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices dropped significantly. The supply side is in a multi - empty intertwined state. The oil inventory accumulation process is clear, with a 2.4% increase in the third quarter. It's recommended to hold a protective strategy combining futures shorts and call options [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil: Iraq's crude oil export recovery and OPEC +'s increasing production expectations put pressure on oil prices. High - sulfur fuel oil supply may tighten due to geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weaker fundamental situation [20] - Asphalt: Market pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm increased. The overall inventory level decreased. The 10 - month production plan was in line with expectations, and the BU trend is temporarily oscillating strongly [21] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Due to typhoon weather in South China, the import volume decreased. Supply - demand improved marginally, and the LPG price rebounded slightly from the bottom [22] Metals - Precious Metals: Overnight precious metals continued to be strong. The medium - term upward trend remains, but there is high volatility risk during the National Day holiday, so it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [3] - Base Metals - Copper: Overnight copper prices rose. The market is digesting the supply impact. Technically, LME copper shows potential for a trend breakthrough, and SHFE copper enters the high - price area. However, there are negative demand expectations [4] - Aluminum: Overnight non - ferrous metals were strong, but SHFE aluminum was relatively stable. The consumption in September was lower than expected, and it faces resistance at the March high. Pay attention to the peak - season feedback after the holiday [5] - Zinc: As the National Day holiday approaches, the zinc fundamentals weakened. Shorts increased positions significantly. Pay attention to the support at 21,500 yuan/ton, and be vigilant against potential short squeezes in the outer market [8] - Lead: The supply of lead exceeded demand in the short term, and the price dropped significantly. Pay attention to the cost support at around 16,500 yuan/ton [9] - Nickel & Stainless Steel: SHFE nickel is in a weak state. The inventory of pure nickel and nickel iron decreased, while the stainless - steel inventory increased. Wait for the external copper price to drive the market [10] - Tin: Overnight tin prices rose rapidly. Pay attention to the impact of Indonesia's policy and the changes in refined tin production rate and inventory after the holiday [11] - Manganese Silicon & Silicon Iron: With the "Three - Carbon" concept, there is an upward driving force for prices. The demand from molten iron production is rising, and it's recommended to go long at low prices [18][19] Chemicals - Urea: Agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and the supply exceeds demand. The inventory of production enterprises continues to accumulate. Pay attention to policy adjustments [23] - Methanol: The methanol market is expected to be weak. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [24] - Pure Benzene: The real - world fundamental situation is okay, but the oil - price collapse and future demand decline expectations drag down the market [24] - Styrene: The cost - side support from oil prices is strengthening, but high inventory suppresses prices [25] - Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene: The supply of polypropylene is under pressure, and the price is always under pressure. For polyethylene, the downstream has stocking demand before the holiday, but there is de - stocking pressure after the holiday [26] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC is in a weak and oscillating state due to high supply and inventory. Caustic soda may oscillate due to weak current situation and strong future expectations [27] - PX & PTA: The strong expectations of PX are weakened, and the supply - demand situation of PTA is still under pressure after the holiday [28] - Ethylene Glycol: The supply pressure is not large in the short term, but the supply - demand may be weak in the fourth quarter [29] - Short Fibre & Bottle Chip: Short - fiber demand is boosted during the peak season, and bottle - chip prices are affected by short - term factors [30] Building Materials - Glass: Pay attention to the downstream restocking sentiment. If capacity reduction does not occur, the market may return to a weak state [31] Agricultural Products - Soybean - related Products: U.S. soybeans face seasonal and export pressures. Palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction cycle. Mid - term, soybean and palm oil are expected to trade in a range. Consider protective call strategies [34] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: Due to the holiday, market sentiment is cautious. Rapeseed meal demand is suppressed, while rapeseed oil inventory is expected to continue to decline. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines before the holiday [35] - Domestic Soybeans: Domestic soybeans are performing better than imported ones in the short term. Pay attention to the performance after the listing of domestic soybeans [36] - Eggs: Egg futures have significantly reduced positions. After the National Day, demand will weaken. Consider long positions in far - month contracts next year [38] - Cotton: U.S. and Chinese cotton prices are falling. Xinjiang cotton may have a bumper harvest, and domestic demand is weak. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [39] - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the market focuses on the next - crop - season yield estimate in China [40] - Apples: Although the spot market is good, the cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected, so maintain a short - selling mindset [41] - Timber: The supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. Maintain a long - buying mindset [42] - Pulp: Pulp prices hit a new low. The inventory in Chinese ports is relatively high, and the demand is average. Stay on the sidelines [43] Financial Products - Stock Index: The stock index showed strength. The external liquidity environment for the Greater China stock index is positive. Mid - term, increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors, and moderately increase the allocation of cyclical sectors in the short term [44] - Treasury Bonds: Treasury futures closed down. The economic operation faces challenges, and the yield - curve steepening probability increases [45] Livestock - Hogs: Hog futures dropped. The supply is abundant, and the government has carried out small - scale purchases. The industry is in a loss state. Pay attention to the impact of re - entry in the fourth quarter [37] - Eggs: Egg futures reduced positions significantly. The demand will weaken after the National Day. Consider long positions in far - month contracts for next year [38]