纸浆数据日报-20250930

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of pulp have shown no signs of recovery. Pulp port inventories and the number of warehouse receipts have not significantly decreased, and pulp futures are trending weakly. It is recommended to consider a 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - Futures Prices: On September 29, 2025, SP2601 was priced at 5174, down 1.86% day - on - day and 2.16% week - on - week; SP2511 was 4878, down 2.75% day - on - day and 2.60% week - on - week; SP2505 was 5214, down 1.55% day - on - day and 1.92% week - on - week [5] - Spot Prices: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5600, down 0.88% day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5150, down 0.96% day - on - day and week - on - week; Hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4250, up 0.71% day - on - day and week - on - week [5] - Outer - disk Quotes: Chilean Silver Star was 700 dollars, down 2.78% month - on - month; Japanese pulp was 530 dollars, up 3.92% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 590 dollars, with 0.00% month - on - month change [5] - Import Costs: Chilean Silver Star was 5721, down 2.75% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4344, up 3.87% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 4830, with 0.00% month - on - month change [5] Fundamental Data - Supply: In August 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 61.4 tons, down 4.95% month - on - month; hardwood pulp imports were 125.8 tons, down 6.88% month - on - month. Chinese pulp shipments were 162 tons, up 4.50% [5] - Production: In September 2025, hardwood pulp production was 23.8 tons; chemimechanical pulp production was 22.3 tons [5] - Inventory: As of September 25, 2025, pulp port inventory was 203.3 tons, down 7.9 tons from the previous period, a 3.7% decrease. Futures delivery warehouse inventory was 23.5 tons [5] - Demand: In September 2025, offset paper production was 21.00 tons; coated paper production was 8.50 tons; tissue paper production was 28.07 tons; white cardboard production was 35.90 tons [5] Valuation Data - Basis: On September 29, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 272, with a quantile level of 0.918; the Silver Star basis was 722, with a quantile level of 0.922 [5] - Import Profit: Coniferous pulp Silver Star had an import profit of - 121, with a quantile level of 0.429; hardwood pulp Goldfish had an import profit of - 94, with a quantile level of 0.554 [5] Market Analysis - Supply Side: Chilean Arauco's September quotes showed a decrease in coniferous pulp outer - disk quotes and an increase in hardwood pulp quotes [5] - Demand Side: Current paper product demand remains at a stable level, paper product prices have not rebounded significantly, and the positive impact of the "Golden September and Silver October" on the pulp demand side has not been reflected [5] - Inventory Side: As of September 25, 2025, China's mainstream pulp port sample inventory was 203.3 tons, showing a de - stocking trend [5]