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国新国证期货早报-20250930
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-09-30 03:04

Variety Views - On September 29, A-share's three major indexes rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.90% to 3862.53, the Shenzhen Component Index up 2.05% to 13479.43, and the ChiNext Index up 2.74% to 3238.01. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2161.5 billion yuan, an increase of 14.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index was strong, closing at 4620.05, a rise of 70.00 [1] - On September 29, the coke weighted index remained weak, closing at 1665.3, a decrease of 70.9. The coking coal weighted index was also weak, closing at 1165.2 yuan, a decrease of 60.4 [1][2] Factors Affecting Futures Prices - Most downstream construction enterprises have limited improvement in cash flow, only 9% show strong inventory preparation willingness, 83% have the same construction days year-on-year, and 43% are bearish on steel prices after the festival. In October 2025, the total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines is expected to be 29.24 million units, a decrease of 9.9% from the same period last year. Coke price increase is expected to be officially implemented during or after the National Day, and the coking profit is expected to improve slightly. The demand for coke is strong, and there is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand. The supply of coking coal is abundant, but there is a risk of marginal deterioration in the inventory structure after the festival, and it is expected that it will be more difficult to support the spot price [3] - Affected by the reduction of spot quotes and the holiday effect, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract closed slightly lower on September 29. The sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil in the first half of September is expected to increase by 15% year-on-year to 3.6 million tons [3] - Due to the approaching long holiday, both long and short sides reduced their positions, and the Shanghai rubber fluctuated narrowly. Affected by the decline in crude oil prices, the Shanghai rubber fluctuated lower at night. In August 2025, the annualized sales volume of global light vehicles was just over 94 million units per year, basically the same as the previous month. In August 2025, the sales volume of the EU passenger car market increased by 5.3% to 677,786 units [4] - On September 29, the CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to the expansion of the US soybean harvest area and concerns about export demand. As of September 29, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, in line with market expectations, and the good rate was 62%. In the domestic market, the soybean meal M2601 contract closed at 2931 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07%. The supply of domestic soybeans is abundant, and the soybean meal inventory has climbed to over 1.2 million tons [4][5][6] - On September 29, the LH2511 contract closed at 12,295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.23%. Affected by the release of production capacity and official de - capacity measures, the supply of live pigs is abundant, and the market demand has not reached the expected level, so the live pig futures are oscillating weakly [6] - On September 29, the palm oil futures price fluctuated slightly at the lower edge of the range. As of September 26, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions was 552,200 tons, a decrease of 32,900 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.62%, and an increase of 46,300 tons from the same period last year, an increase of 9.16% [7] - Affected by high US inflation, uncertainty about the interest - rate cut path, and potential trade tariffs, the Shanghai copper may oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the shortage of copper ore and the growth of new energy demand will push up the copper price [7] - On the night of September 29, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,245 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 224 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the price of machine - picked cotton was 6.02 - 6.22 yuan per kilogram [7] - On September 29, the log 2511 contract opened at 808.5, closed at 810.5, and decreased its position by 701 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and the spot trading is weak [8] - On September 29, the iron ore 2601 contract decreased by 1.57%, closing at 784 yuan. The iron ore shipment decreased, the arrival increased, and the iron water production remained high. The upward space of iron ore prices may be limited in the short term [8] - On September 29, the asphalt 2511 contract increased by 0.43%, closing at 3466 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased, the social inventory decreased, and the refinery inventory pressure increased. The demand in the north is supported by pre - holiday construction, while the demand in the south is weak due to heavy rainfall [9][10] - On September 29, the rb2601 contract was reported at 3097 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract was reported at 3289 yuan/ton. Considering the potential inventory accumulation during the National Day and the expected increase in supply - demand pressure after the festival, the steel price may be weakly stable in the short term [10] - On September 29, the ao2601 contract was reported at 2942 yuan/ton. The alumina has no upward driving force, the cost is expected to decline, the demand from the electrolytic aluminum industry is limited, and the supply surplus pattern is difficult to change [10] - On September 29, the al2511 contract was reported at 20,730 yuan/ton. There is greater uncertainty in the Fed's future monetary policy. The "anti - involution" sentiment in copper smelting has driven up the aluminum futures. After the double - festivals, the inventory change of aluminum ingots needs to be concerned [11]