2025年四季度策略报告：供需博弈下的价格探底与反弹路径-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the domestic steel market is expected to move forward in the game between weak reality and strong expectations, likely continuing the pattern of weak shocks. Without an increase in domestic demand, the contribution of demand growth mainly depends on external demand. Domestic prices are suppressed by export prices and do not have the driving conditions for a significant rebound. A substantial turnaround requires stronger domestic demand improvement or external positive drivers. Currently, the spot profit of rebar in some northern regions is in deficit, and the motivation for hot metal conversion is insufficient. The high output of hot-rolled coils may be adjusted through profit contraction, so there is a driving force for the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar to narrow [1][5][60]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - In Q3 2025, the prices of the black series soared and then fluctuated in a wide range. The supply-demand structures of different varieties showed differences, and the prices showed significant differentiation. In the raw material sector, the overall demand remained high, and supply determined the price fluctuation range. Coking coal prices were firm due to supply contraction expectations, with a cumulative increase of over 40% in Q3; coke prices were relatively stable, with a cumulative increase of 23%; iron ore prices were stable overall, with the Platts Index rising 12% in Q3. The demand for scrap steel increased, but the cumulative increase in Q3 was only 3%. In terms of finished products, from January to August 2025, both production and sales of crude steel increased, with the supply growth rate exceeding the demand growth rate. External demand contributed the main demand growth, and domestic demand was significantly differentiated. Building materials consumption decreased by 5% year-on-year, while plate consumption increased by 2.5%. Steel direct exports were stronger than expected, with a 9.6% year-on-year increase from January to August, and there were significant changes in export destinations and varieties. Driven by steel mill profits, production remained at a high level, with a cumulative crude steel production growth rate of 4.6% in the first eight months [5]. 3.2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1. Macro: Policy Intensification to Stabilize Expectations, Economic Momentum to Be Converted - The domestic economy is seeking a balance between policy support and structural transformation, featuring a gradual recovery of domestic demand and continuous pressure on external demand. The GDP growth rate in Q4 is expected to be about 4.6% to support the annual growth target of 5%. On the demand side, there is a differentiation between old and new driving forces. General infrastructure investment maintains high growth, and consumption is expected to recover moderately but lacks strong demand support. External demand faces the risk of negative growth in December due to tariff policy uncertainty in exports to the United States, but diversified trading partners and the advantages of mechanical and electrical products offset some external shocks. On the supply and policy front, industrial production grows rapidly, but the problem of structural overcapacity in the industrial sector remains unresolved. Policy counter-cyclical adjustment is precise, and the CPI is expected to rise to around 0.3% by the end of the year, while the decline of PPI is expected to narrow further [10]. 3.2.2. Steel Demand Analysis - Real Estate: From January to August 2025, real estate development investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and sales volume all declined year-on-year, and the decline in sales area and volume widened compared to the first half of the year. The supply of new real estate land decreased, and the inventory pressure was high. Therefore, the steel demand for real estate in Q4 2025 is expected to continue to shrink [17][18]. - Infrastructure: From January to August 2025, the cumulative growth rate of small-caliber infrastructure investment dropped to 2%, and the single-month decline in August expanded. The improvement of traditional infrastructure demand was limited, mainly due to factors such as debt repayment pressure and reduced consumption intensity. The implementation of physical volume in Q4 needs to be observed. Although the large-caliber infrastructure growth rate is relatively high, which offsets some downward pressure, the overall improvement of infrastructure demand is relatively limited [24]. - Manufacturing Investment: In 2025, the central government made comprehensive arrangements for expanding effective investment, and local governments implemented relevant policies to support manufacturing investment. From January to August 2025, the cumulative growth rate of China's manufacturing investment was 5.1%, higher than the overall growth rate of fixed - asset investment but showing a slowdown. The decline in July and August was significant due to factors such as the rapid release of equipment renewal funds in the first half of the year, rising bases, and anti - involution policies. Currently, industrial enterprises are in the active de - stocking stage, and PPI is still in a downward cycle. In Q4 2025, manufacturing investment is expected to continue the downward trend, but demand still has some resilience [31][32]. - Exports: From January to August 2025, the cumulative steel export volume was 77.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, stronger than expected. There were significant changes in export destinations and varieties. Exports to some countries decreased, while exports to Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East increased. The export volume of billets increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 292% in the first eight months. It is expected that steel exports will remain at a high level in Q4, but the year-on-year growth rate may decline [36]. 3.2.3. Supply Analysis - From January to August 2025, the cumulative output of pig iron (according to Steel Union data) increased by 3% year-on-year, and the cumulative output of crude steel increased by 0.2% year-on-year. The profitability of steel enterprises improved overall in 2025, but there were significant differences among enterprises. In the first three quarters, steel enterprises' profitability improved due to factors such as falling raw material costs and anti - involution policies. However, in Q4, the industry faces challenges such as weak demand and rising costs [46]. 3.3. Crude Steel Balance Sheet Deduction and Conclusion - The balance sheet data shows that from January to August 2025, the cumulative consumption of crude steel was 628 million tons, an increase of 13.8 million tons, with a cumulative increase of 2.25%; the cumulative production of crude steel was 726 million tons, an increase of 31.93 million tons, with a cumulative increase of 4.6%. The increase in crude steel consumption in the first three quarters was mainly reflected in external demand, and domestic demand was still relatively weak. The supply - demand gap was at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. Although demand improved seasonally in September, the overall increase was limited. Market - based production cuts in Q4 will lead to a new balance between supply and demand [60].