中辉能化观点-20250930

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish consolidation [2] - PP: Bearish consolidation [2] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [6] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [6] Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances and OPEC+ production expansion lead to increased crude oil price volatility, with a downward pressure on prices in the long - term. For other energy and chemical products, their prices are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and inventory, showing different trends [2][4][6] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices fell significantly, with WTI down 3.45%, Brent down 3.08%, and SC up 1.10% [7] - Basic Logic: In mid - to late September, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries caused oil prices to rebound. The focus is on the October 5 OPEC+ meeting, and in the long - term, supply may exceed demand, likely pushing oil prices down to around $60 [8] - Fundamentals: Supply from the Iraq - Turkey pipeline has recovered to 15 - 160,000 barrels per day. Indian refinery crude processing volume in August decreased by 4.4% month - on - month. As of September 19, US commercial crude inventory decreased by 607,000 barrels [9] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [475 - 485] for SC [10] LPG - Market Review: On September 29, the PG main contract closed at 4,295 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [13] - Basic Logic: The cost of oil is weakening, downstream chemical demand is rising, and the supply is abundant during the double - festival. As of September 29, the number of warehouse receipts decreased [14] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4250 - 4350] for PG [15] L - Market Review: The L2601 contract closed at 7,181 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [19] - Basic Logic: It follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. Social inventory has been decreasing for 5 weeks. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is strengthening due to the peak season of shed films [20] - Strategy Recommendation: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] for L [20] PP - Market Review: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,903 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [24] - Basic Logic: It follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. The supply pressure may ease, and the downstream demand is entering the peak season [25] - Strategy Recommendation: Industries can hedge at high prices. Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [6800 - 7000] for PP [25] PVC - Market Review: The V2601 contract closed at 4,896 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [29] - Basic Logic: The fundamentals are supply - strong and demand - weak, with inventory accumulating for 14 weeks. However, low prices and positive macro - expectations support the price. There are many planned device overhauls in October [30] - Strategy Recommendation: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] for V [30] PX - Market Review: On September 26, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [33] - Basic Logic: Supply - side devices have little change, and demand - side PTA may have more overhauls later. The supply - demand balance is expected to be loose, and inventory is still relatively high [33] - Strategy Recommendation: Stop loss on short positions and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [6560 - 6670] for PX511 [34] PTA - Market Review: On September 26, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,590 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [36] - Basic Logic: Supply - side pressure may ease due to planned overhauls. Demand has improved recently. The supply - demand balance in September is tight and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [37] - Strategy Recommendation: Gradually stop loss on short positions. Hold long positions lightly before the festival and look for opportunities to short on rebounds after the festival. Focus on the range of [4560 - 4650] for TA01 [38] MEG - Market Review: On September 26, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,311 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [40] - Basic Logic: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, and overseas devices have little change. Terminal demand has improved, but inventory is low. The market is concerned about the supply increase from new devices [40] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [4165 - 4240] for EG01 [41] Methanol - Market Review: On September 26, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,293 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [44] - Basic Logic: The supply pressure is still large, but demand has improved, and the social inventory is decreasing. Cost support is stabilizing [45] - Strategy Recommendation: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [45] Urea - Market Review: On September 26, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [49] - Basic Logic: Supply is relatively loose, with production resuming. Domestic demand is weak, while exports are good. Inventory is accumulating [50] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. Look for opportunities to go long on dips in the long - term [4]