日度策略参考-20250930

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Crude oil [1] - Bearish: Short fiber, Styrene [1] - Volatile: Index, Treasury bonds, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Carbonate lithium, Rebar, Hot-rolled coil, Iron ore, Coke, Palm oil, Soybean oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live pigs, Asphalt, Natural rubber, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Black liquor, PVC, LPG, Shipping freight [1] Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by multiple factors such as asset shortages, weak economies, mine production disruptions, seasonal demand changes, and geopolitical situations. Before the National Day holiday, market sentiment is volatile, and funds have a demand for risk aversion. Different industries and varieties show different trends, and investors are advised to control positions and pay attention to supply - demand and macro - economic changes [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic and Financial - Index: Long - term bullish, but the probability of a unilateral upward pattern before the National Day holiday is low. Suggest controlling positions [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortages and weak economies are beneficial, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk prompts suppress the upward space [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Gold: May fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, but beware of increased volatility during the National Day holiday [1] - Silver: Expected to run strongly in the short term, but beware of sharp fluctuations during the National Day holiday. Suggest controlling positions [1] - Copper: The accident at the Indonesian Grasberg mine has reduced production by 35% (annual output of 800,000 metric tons of metal), intensifying concerns about tight global copper supply. The price may run strongly in the short term [1] - Aluminum: The impact of macroscopic factors has weakened, and the price may fluctuate based on fundamentals [1] - Alumina: Production and inventory are increasing, pressuring the spot price, but the price is approaching the cost line, and the downward space is limited [1] - Zinc: The supply delay of Huoshaoyun has improved the fundamentals, but high social inventories are still pressuring the price [1] - Nickel: Short - term volatility may be upward, but there is still long - term pressure from the surplus of primary nickel. Suggest short - term trading in intervals and light positions during the holiday [1] - Stainless steel: Raw material prices are firm, social inventories are increasing, and the futures price may fluctuate in the short term. Suggest short - term trading and waiting for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1] - Tin: The demand in the peak season is expected to improve, and low - buying opportunities can be concerned [1] Black Metals - Rebar: The upward driving force of the industry is insufficient, and there is a risk of weakening supply and demand in the fourth quarter. Suggest reducing positions during the holiday [1] - Hot - rolled coil: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward opportunities due to good commodity sentiment [1] - Iron ore: The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery and possible weakening demand and high inventories [1] - Coke and Coking Coal: After the coking coal 05 contract reached a new high and then sharply corrected, before the Fourth Plenary Session of the 10th Central Committee, the policy may enter a window period. Before the holiday, long - position holders should gradually exit the market, and if there is a rally, short - selling hedging is the main strategy [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The end of the Argentine tax - exemption policy and Indian purchases impact the price, but the September production reduction in Malaysia and biodiesel demand support it. The price is expected to recover from the previous over - decline [1] - Soybean oil: The end of the Argentine tax - exemption policy and domestic purchases may supplement the supply, weakening the fourth - quarter destocking expectation. The price is expected to recover from the over - decline. Suggest waiting and seeing [1] - Rapeseed oil: The pattern of strong near - term and weak far - term remains unchanged. Positive spreads are preferred [1] - Cotton: In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate widely within a range, and there may be pressure in the long term with the listing of new cotton [1] - Sugar: The high proportion of sugar production may be adjusted downward, and the raw sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upside space is limited due to oversupply. In China, the import increase and processing plant operation still bring pressure, and short - selling at high prices is still recommended [1] - Corn: Without obvious policy and weather changes, CO1 is expected to build a bottom through fluctuations. Pay attention to traders' purchasing rhythm and policy changes [1] - Soybean: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing margin is poor, and the price has support at the bottom. Suggest buying at low prices. The future driving force depends on Sino - US policies and South American planting - season weather [1] - Pulp: The bottom range of the pulp futures has initially emerged, but there is no bullish driver yet. Pay attention to the warehouse - receipt cancellation volume after September delivery. The futures price will fluctuate [1] - Log: The fundamentals of logs have no obvious changes. The overseas quotation has decreased, and the spot price is firm. The log futures will fluctuate [1] - Live pigs: The pig slaughter continues to increase, the weight does not decrease significantly, the downstream acceptance is limited, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The market is generally bearish [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Driven by short - term geopolitical tensions and a second - consecutive - week decline in US crude oil inventories [1] - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by factors such as a super typhoon in South China, continuous inventory decline, and a significant reduction in RU warehouse receipts compared to the same period in previous years [1] - BR rubber: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the raw - material fundamentals are loose, the synthetic rubber supply is abundant, the downstream transactions are weakening, the warehouse receipts on the disk are sharply reduced, and the inter - month spread is widening. Pay attention to the capital - flow trend [1] - PTA: Domestic PTA plants are gradually resuming production, the PTA output is increasing, the PTA basis is rapidly declining, the crude oil price is falling, the PX plant maintenance is postponed, and the downstream polyester profit is significantly repaired, with the operating load rising to 91% [1] - Ethylene glycol: The basis of ethylene glycol is strengthening, but the upcoming commissioning of the Yulong Petrochemical ethylene glycol plant puts pressure on the disk. The arrival of overseas ethylene glycol plants has decreased, but the hedging volume has increased after the price recovery [1] - Short fiber: Short - fiber plants are gradually resuming production, and the delivery willingness of market warehouse receipts has weakened as the price falls [1] - Styrene: The supply of pure benzene and styrene is continuously increasing after the end of maintenance, the Yulong Petrochemical plant is about to be commissioned, and the import pressure of domestic pure benzene is increasing due to the unopened South Korea - US price difference [1] - Black liquor: The export sentiment has eased, the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1] - PVC: The domestic PVC plants are gradually resuming production, the supply pressure is increasing, and the near - month warehouse receipts are abundant. The price will fluctuate weakly [1] - LPG: OPEC+ production increase and high domestic crude oil inventories suppress the upward momentum of LPG, the chemical demand is weak, and the profit negative feedback leads to a decline in the cost PG [1]