蛋白数据日报-20250930

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic soybean purchase and shipping profit is poor, and the disk valuation is low. Considering the cost, there is certain support below. It is recommended to mainly go long on dips. The future driver depends on China-US policies and South American planting season weather [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - On September 29, the basis of the main contract of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 7, and the basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Dongguan decreased by 6 to -3, and in Zhanjiang decreased by 6 to 17. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was 183, a decrease of 10 [6] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the disk price difference (main contract) was 517, a decrease of 15. The exchange rate of US dollars to RMB was 7.1300, a decrease of 14.00, and the disk crushing profit was 290 yuan/ton [7] Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, the good rate of US soybeans has dropped to 61%. Recently, there has been less rainfall in the producing areas, and the good rate may continue to decline. The yield per unit of US soybeans may be lowered later. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. Currently, the purchase and shipping progress for November - January is slow. The supply of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [8][9] - In terms of demand, the short - term high inventory of pig and poultry breeding is expected to be maintained, supporting the feed demand. However, the policy is oriented to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the supply of pigs in the far - month. The cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high [9] Inventory - Domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level; the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased but is lower than that of last year. It is expected to still be in the inventory accumulation cycle in the short term; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased [9]