国投期货综合晨报-20250930

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and seasonal trends. Different commodities and financial instruments present diverse investment opportunities and risks. For example, some commodities like manganese silicon are recommended for long - positions, while others like apples are advised to be shorted. In the financial market, a positive external liquidity environment is observed for the Greater China region's stock indices, and a steeper yield curve is expected for Treasury bonds [2][44][45]. 3. Summary by Commodity and Financial Instrument Categories Energy - Crude Oil: Supply is in a multi - factor state with both increases and geopolitical risks. Oil inventory accumulation is clear in Q3. It's recommended to hold a protective strategy of short futures and long call options [2]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Fuel oil follows the downward trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil supply may tighten due to geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weaker fundamental situation with abundant supply and weak demand [20]. - Asphalt: Pre - holiday inventory decreases. October production plan is in line with expectations, and demand is seasonally boosted, so the price is expected to be slightly strong [21]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): Due to weather - related import changes and expected increase in demand, the price has rebounded slightly [22]. Metals - Precious Metals: They show a strong trend in the medium - term but have high volatility risks during the National Day holiday, so it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [3]. - Base Metals - Copper: Prices are rising. Grasberg's supply impact is being digested. Technically, there is potential for a trend breakthrough, but basic demand has a negative expectation [4]. - Aluminum: It's relatively stable. September consumption is below expectations, and it faces resistance at the March high. Post - holiday peak - season feedback is to be watched [5]. - Zinc: As the holiday approaches, the fundamentals weaken. Attention should be paid to the support level, and short - positions are advised to take profits before the holiday [8]. - Lead: Supply exceeds demand during the holiday, and the price has dropped. Cost support should be noted [9]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel is weakly running. Inventory changes vary, and it's waiting for the boost from copper prices [10]. - Tin: Prices have risen due to Indonesia's policy. Attention should be paid to the policy's impact and post - holiday inventory changes [11]. - Other Metals - Alumina: Supply is in surplus, and the price is weakly running [6]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It fluctuates with aluminum. Supply and demand factors lead to a mainly oscillating trend [7]. - Manganese Silicon: With the "Three - Carbon" initiative, there is an upward price drive. It's recommended to go long at low prices [18]. - Silicon Iron: Similar to manganese silicon, it has an upward price drive and good demand. Long - positions at low prices are recommended [19]. Chemicals - Urea: Agricultural and industrial demand is weak, and supply exceeds demand. Policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment should be watched [23]. - Methanol: The market is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [24]. - Pure Benzene: The fundamental situation is okay, but cost and demand factors are dragging down the market [24]. - Styrene: Cost support is strengthening, but high inventory suppresses the price [25]. - Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene: Supply is controllable, and demand provides some support, but polypropylene faces price pressure [26]. - PVC and Caustic Soda: PVC is in a weak situation, and caustic soda may oscillate [27]. - PX and PTA: The supply - demand situation is still under pressure after the holiday [28]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply pressure is not large in the short - term but may increase in the medium - term [29]. - Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip: Short - fiber is boosted by demand, and bottle - chip is affected by short - term factors [30]. Grains and Oils - Soybean Oil and Palm Oil: Soybeans face seasonal and export challenges. Palm oil has supply - side drivers in the fourth quarter. A protective long - call strategy can be considered [34]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: Due to holiday factors, a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [35]. - Soybean: Domestic soybeans perform better in the short - term. Supply situations in different periods need attention [36]. Agricultural Products - Hogs: Supply pressure is high, and the price is falling. The industry's capacity reduction process should be watched [37]. - Eggs: For far - month contracts, long - positions can be considered, while for near - month contracts, the departure of short - funds should be watched [38]. - Cotton: The short - term trend is weak, and it's recommended to wait and see [39]. - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the focus is on the next season's production estimate in China [40]. - Apples: Although the spot market is good, the price faces pressure, and a short - position strategy is recommended [41]. - Wood: The supply - demand situation is improving, and a long - position strategy is recommended [42]. - Paper Pulp: The price is falling, and a wait - and - see attitude is recommended [43]. Financial Instruments - Stock Indices: They are showing strength. The external liquidity environment is positive, and a moderate increase in the allocation of cyclical styles can be considered [44]. - Treasury Bonds: They are falling, and a steeper yield curve is expected [45].